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Gold Hits Fresh Monthly High- USD Bulls Banking on Fed Minutes?

Gold Hits Fresh Monthly High- USD Bulls Banking on Fed Minutes?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Gold Climbs to Fresh Monthly High- Threatens Bearish RSI Momentum.

- GBP/USD Breakout to Gather Pace on Strong U.K. Retail Sales.

- USDOLLAR Fails to Benefit From Sticky CPI- FOMC Minutes in Focus.

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XAU/USD

XAU/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Gold (XAU/USD) appears to be making a larger assault at the bearish RSI momentum as it climbs to a fresh monthly high of $1129; bullish trigger raises the risk for a larger correction in the precious metal.
  • Will keep a close eye on $1138 (50% retracement) in light of the near-term rebound, with the key area of interest coming in around the former support zone, $1145 (78.6% expansion) to $1146 (50% retracement) amid the weakening outlook for global growth.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long XAU/USD since May, with the ratio coming off of recent extremes as it narrows to +1.24, with 55% of traders long.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • A series of closing prices above 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion) may encourage a further advance in GBP/USD especially as the bullish RSI momentum continues to take shape.
  • With U.K. Retail Sales projected to rebound 0.4% in July, signs of a stronger recovery may spur a growing dissent within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) & heighten the bullish sentiment surrounding the British Pound.
  • Will keep a close eye on the topside targets amid the near-term breakout, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.5750 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5790 (50% expansion).

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Read More:

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Scalping NZDUSD Opening Range- 6630 Resistance Remains Key Hurdle

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index12000.5312005.8911979.28-0.0152.23%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar holds within the previous day’s range ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes even though the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) were in-line with market expectations; suggest market participants are waiting for clarity on the monetary policy outlook.
  • Given the unanimous vote along with the limited commentary following the July 29 interest rate decision, may get more of the same as the Fed continues to look for a further improvement in the labor market.
  • Will continue to watch 12,049 (78.6% retracement) as the USDOLLAR continues to come off of near-term support around 11,951 (38.2% expansion) to 11,965 (23.6% retracement).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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