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USD/JPY Retail FX Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite Fresh Monthly Lows

USD/JPY Retail FX Crowd Remains Net-Long Despite Fresh Monthly Lows

Talking Points:

- USD/JPY Retail Crowd Boost Net-Long Exposure Despite Fresh Monthly Lows.

- AUD/USD Carves Bearish Pattern Ahead of Australia Employment Report.

- USDOLLAR Struggles Ahead of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USD/JPY remains at risk for a further decline as market participants scale back their appetite for risk, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to retain the bullish momentum from the beginning of the year.
  • Break/close below 121.20 (61.8% expansion) to 121.30 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for a move into 120.00 (78.6% retracement) to 120.20 (50% expansion).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long USD/JPY since June 8, with the ratio approaching extreme readings as it climbs to +2.75.


AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD may face a further decline as it continues to carve lower highs & lows in July, while the RSI pushes into oversold territory.
  • A flat reading for Australia Employment along with an uptick in the jobless rate may fuel speculation for another Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut should the report dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.
  • Break/close bellowing 0.7380-90 (78.6% expansion) may expose 0.7240-50 (100% expansion).

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Read More:

USD Breakout Takes a Breather as FOMC Minutes Loom

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11964.0412002.7611960.97-0.1672.97%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar struggles to hold its ground going into the FederalOpen Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes; long-term outlook remains bullish as the central bank remains on course to normalize monetary policy.
  • Fresh batch of Fed rhetoric may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback should the committee show greater concerns for the global economy & highlight a more dovish outlook for monetary policy.
  • Topside target stands at 12,050 (78.6% retracement), with former resistance around 11,898 (50% retracement) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) seen as new support.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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