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GBP/USD Continues to Carve Bullish Series as Retail FX Remains Short

GBP/USD Continues to Carve Bullish Series as Retail FX Remains Short

2015-04-28 16:10:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short Following Dismal U.K. 1Q GDP.

- AUD/USD RSI Approaching Overbought- RBA May 5 Meeting in Focus.

- USDOLLAR Threatens Key Support Ahead of 1Q GDP, Fed Interest Rate Decision.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the weaker-than-expected U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, GBP/USD continues to carve higher highs & lows as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace.
  • Break & close above 1..5340 (78.6% retracement) raises the risk of seeing a full retracement of the decline from the February high (1.5551).
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd continues to fade the near-term advance and remains net-short GBP/USD since April 27, with the ratio currently holding at -1.38.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD climbs to a fresh monthly high (0.8015); break/close above 0.8000 (61.8% retracement) to expose 0.8130 (78.6% retracement).
  • Will keep a close eye on the bullish RSI momentum; push into oversold territory to highlight a further advance in the exchange rate.
  • Double-bottom formation around the 0.7600 region may highlight a move into the 0.8100 handle, but the long-term outlook remains bearish as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep the door open to further embark on its easing cycle at the May 5 interest rate decision.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: Patterns Patterns Everywhere

Scalp Webinar: USD Risks Fresh Lows Ahead of Slowing GDP, FOMC

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11823.55

11902.58

11819.46

-0.61

114.09%

GBP/USD Continues to Carve Bullish Series as Retail FX Remains ShortUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar threatens key support around 11,828 (78.6% retracement) to 11,836 (61.8% retracement) as the ongoing series of weaker-than-expected data raises the risk for a dismal 1Q GDP reading; will keep a close eye on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, as price growth is expected to slow to an annualized 1.0% from 1.1% during the last three-months of 2014.
  • May see more of the same from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the central bank remains ‘data dependent,’ but may see a bearish reaction to the interest rate decision should Janet Yellen and Co. talk down bets for a rate hike in June.
  • Close below 11,828 (78.6% retracement) to 11,836 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for a reversal in the USDOLLAR, with the next downside region of interest coming in around 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,737 (Feb 26 low).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-City s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

13:00

0.70%

0.93%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-City (YoY) (FEB)

13:00

4.70%

5.03%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

13:00

--

0.42%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

13:00

--

4.22%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20-City Index n.s.a. (FEB)

13:00

173.13

173.67

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Index n.s.a. (FEB)

13:00

--

166.80

Consumer Confidence (APR)

14:00

102.2

95.2

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (APR)

14:00

-2

-3

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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