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AUD/USD Threatens Bullish Momentum- NZD/USD Carves Top Ahead of RBNZ

AUD/USD Threatens Bullish Momentum- NZD/USD Carves Top Ahead of RBNZ

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Outperforms to Retain Range- China Event Risk in Focus.

- NZD/USD Retains Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBNZ Meeting.

- USDOLLAR Rallies to Fresh High on Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).

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AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • AUD/USD may threaten the broader range from back in February on a close above 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) as the RSI threatens the bullish trend.
  • Even though Australia Employment is expected to show a 15.0K rebound in February, key data prices coming out of China – Australia’s largest trading partner – may heavily impact the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a dovish tone for monetary policy.
  • Despite the ongoing range in AUD/USD, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has flipped net-short, with the ratio currently standing at -1.04.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD Daily Chart
  • NZD/USD appears to have a carved a near-term top as it continues to come off of former support zone around 0.7590 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion); downside targets remain favored as the RSI retains the bearish momentum.
  • Despite the verbal intervention, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forward-guidance for monetary policy may heavily influence the near-term outlook for NZD/USD.
  • Close below 0.7330 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7340 (23.6% retracement) may open the door for fresh lows.

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Read More:

The Weekly Volume Report: Euro Decline Resume But Volume Still Missing

NFP Setups in Focus- USD Breakout Plays

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11989.3311993.7511889.180.74196.94%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar extends advance following the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report; looks poised for a further advance as the RSI retains the bullish momentum and pushes back into overbought territory.
  • Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, may see the Federal Reserve share a similar fate to its U.K. counterpart as wage growth continues to lag behind.
  • Nevertheless, outlook remains bullish and need a break/close above 11,997 (100% expansion) to 12,001 (78.6% expansion) should expose 12,073 (100% expansion)

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
Non-Farm Payrolls (FEB)13:30235K295K
Unemployment Rate (FEB)13:305.6%5.5%
Labor Force Participation Rate (FEB)13:3062.9%62.8%
Change in Private Payrolls (FEB)13:30225K288K
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (FEB)13:3010K8K
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (FEB)13:30---18K
Change in Household Employment (FEB)13:3025096
Underemployment Rate (FEB)13:30--11.0%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (FEB)13:300.2%0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (FEB)13:302.2%2.0%
Trade Balance (JAN)13:30-$41.1B-$41.8B
Consumer Credit (JAN)19:00$14.5000B--

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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