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GBP/USD Bullish RSI Momentum in Focus- Gold Downside Targets Favored

GBP/USD Bullish RSI Momentum in Focus- Gold Downside Targets Favored

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- GBP/USD Bullish Momentum Takes Shape Ahead of U.K. Retail Sales.

- Gold Downside Targets in Focus Amid Ongoing Series of Lower-Highs.

- USDOLLAR Holds Tight Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Forward-Guidance in Focus.

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GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • GBP/USD climbs to a fresh monthly high 1.5454 amid the positive developments coming out of the U.K. economy while Bank of England (BoE) retains hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy.
  • Faster job/wage growth paired with lower energy prices may prop up U.K. Retail Sales, which is projected to contract 0.3% in January.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD since February 12, with the ratio currently holding at +1.22.

XAU/USD

XAU/USD
  • Gold looks poised for a further decline as it continues to carve a series of lower highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) carves a bearish trend.
  • Market players appear to be treating gold more as a commodity rather than a currency as it largely moves in tandem with Silver prices..
  • Next key downside objective comes in around $1179 (100% expansion) to $1182 (61.8% expansion).

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Read More:

Price & Time: Searching For Clarity in AUD/USD

Crude Oil Hits 2-Month High, SPX 500 Chart Setup Hints at Pullback

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11800.8411804.0411779.210.0941.16%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised for another close above 11,774 (50% expansion) despite the weaker-than-expected data prints; will continue to watch the monthly opening range.
  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may heighten the appeal of the USDOLLAR should the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric boost speculation for a rate hike in mid-2015.
  • Still waiting for a break/close out of the 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion) range.

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ReleaseGMTExpectedActual
MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 13)12:00---13.2%
Housing Starts (JAN)13:301070K1065K
Housing Starts (MoM) (JAN)13:30-1.7%-2.0%
Building Permits (JAN)13:301067K1053K
Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)13:300.9%-0.7%
Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)13:30-0.4%-0.8%
Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)13:300.3%0.0%
Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy (MoM) (JAN)13:300.1%-0.1%
Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy (YoY) (JAN)13:302.0%1.6%
Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy/Trade (MoM) (JAN)13:300.1%-0.3%
Producer Price Index ex Food/Energy/Trade (YoY) (JAN)13:301.3%0.9%
Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)14:150.3%0.2%
Capacity Utilization (JAN)14:1579.9%79.4%
Manufacturing Production (SIC) (JAN)14:150.4%0.2%
Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes19:00
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (DEC)21:00--
Total Net TIC Flows (DEC)21:00--

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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