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EUR/USD Open Interest Declines Ahead of Greek Election, FOMC

EUR/USD Open Interest Declines Ahead of Greek Election, FOMC

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Squeezes Higher; DailyFX SSI Highlights Drop in Open Interest Ahead of Greek Election.

- GBP/USD Fails to Hold Support; At Risk for Further Decline on Dismal 4Q U.K. GDP Report.

- Bullish USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by 2015 FOMC Rotation; Vote Count in Focus.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD rebounds from a fresh monthly low of 1.1113, but downside targets remain favored as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds and pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • May see increased volatility in EUR/USD at the Sunday open following the Greek elections on January 25 amid the renewed threat for contagion.
  • Despite the increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), open interest on EUR/USD has fallen nearly 9% going into the last full week of January, largely driven by a decline in retail short positioning.


GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD slips to 1.4950 despite the 0.2% rise in U.K. Retail Sales; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it flirts with oversold territory.
  • U.K.’s 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the economy growing 0.6% versus 0.7% during the three-months through September; will it reinforce a wait-and-see approach for the Bank of England (BoE)?
  • Nevertheless, will continue to favor the downside for GBP/USD as price & RSI retain the bearish trends carried over from the previous year.

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Read More:

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GBPNZD At Key Channel Resistance

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

IndexLastHighLowDaily Change (%)Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index11749.6711753.5111669.340.40144.47%
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar pares advance to 11,863 as it fails to benefit from the slew of mixed data prints; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision may set the tone for the February trade following the 2015 rotation.
  • Beyond calls for a mid-2015 rate hike, will keep a close eye on the vote count as the 2014 dissenters (Richard Fisher & Charles Plosser) lose their vote on the committee.
  • Need a close above 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to favor a more meaningful run at 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (DEC)13:300.48-0.05
Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN P)14:4554.053.7
Existing Home Sales (DEC)15:005.08M5.04M
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)15:003.0%2.4%
Leading Index (DEC)15:000.4%0.5%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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