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EUR/USD Open Interest Declines Ahead of Greek Election, FOMC

EUR/USD Open Interest Declines Ahead of Greek Election, FOMC

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- EUR/USD Squeezes Higher; DailyFX SSI Highlights Drop in Open Interest Ahead of Greek Election.

- GBP/USD Fails to Hold Support; At Risk for Further Decline on Dismal 4Q U.K. GDP Report.

- Bullish USDOLLAR Outlook Mired by 2015 FOMC Rotation; Vote Count in Focus.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD rebounds from a fresh monthly low of 1.1113, but downside targets remain favored as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds and pushes deeper into oversold territory.
  • May see increased volatility in EUR/USD at the Sunday open following the Greek elections on January 25 amid the renewed threat for contagion.
  • Despite the increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI), open interest on EUR/USD has fallen nearly 9% going into the last full week of January, largely driven by a decline in retail short positioning.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Chart
  • GBP/USD slips to 1.4950 despite the 0.2% rise in U.K. Retail Sales; will keep a close eye on the RSI as it flirts with oversold territory.
  • U.K.’s 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the economy growing 0.6% versus 0.7% during the three-months through September; will it reinforce a wait-and-see approach for the Bank of England (BoE)?
  • Nevertheless, will continue to favor the downside for GBP/USD as price & RSI retain the bearish trends carried over from the previous year.

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Read More:

Sell The Rumor Sell The News?

GBPNZD At Key Channel Resistance

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11749.67

11753.51

11669.34

0.40

144.47%

EUR/USD Open Interest Declines Ahead of Greek Election, FOMCUSDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar pares advance to 11,863 as it fails to benefit from the slew of mixed data prints; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision may set the tone for the February trade following the 2015 rotation.
  • Beyond calls for a mid-2015 rate hike, will keep a close eye on the vote count as the 2014 dissenters (Richard Fisher & Charles Plosser) lose their vote on the committee.
  • Need a close above 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to favor a more meaningful run at 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (DEC)

13:30

0.48

-0.05

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN P)

14:45

54.0

53.7

Existing Home Sales (DEC)

15:00

5.08M

5.04M

Existing Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

15:00

3.0%

2.4%

Leading Index (DEC)

15:00

0.4%

0.5%

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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