We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The spread of #coronavirus promises a global economic hit at a time when the global economy is perhaps especially ill-equipped to deal with one. Growth-correlated assets are vulnerable. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/0If0Jw7c2P https://t.co/mph6z70XeF
  • The $JPY continues to struggle against the US Dollar but there seems little appetite to push USD/JPY much beyond a range which has tended to reassert itself since late last year. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/iaVfPSuXy4 https://t.co/1QPhJmYlQv
  • The #Euro may bounce after hitting the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. While the broader trend points firmly lower, selling pressure may be ebbing. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/697SQ9j5FY https://t.co/6SEvwQyod8
  • GBP/CAD has broken below the September uptrend while EUR/CAD may be ending its consecutive 12 day decline with EUR/CHF approaching key resistance as NZD/CAD aims at November lows. Get your currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/GpRB7IKhTA https://t.co/hlHlGdhkHc
  • The $GBP recoiled from chart resistance against the US Dollar, setting the stage for prices to resume a bearish trend reversal triggered mid-January. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/lVpyZkIfJt https://t.co/9oXusxs0Kg
  • The #Euro may have more room to fall versus its major peers such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and British Pound. What is the technical picture of EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/M6fLA9g3BK https://t.co/HMwQgr1WP5
  • The $USD’s aggressive rise versus ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso prolonged. What is the technical road ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/RsFptNzODf https://t.co/u8meQUSsVG
  • $AUD broke critical range support against its US counterpart, suggesting deeper losses are ahead even after prices hit an 11-year low. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/45YpJRjDYj https://t.co/zWAzaL78Sc
  • After negotiating a series of economic and geopolitical risks in 2019, the S&P 500 rounded out the year more than 30% higher. Will the stock market crash in 2020? Find out from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/8KsjB9YkBB https://t.co/4ph9bdMxz9
  • Italy reports first death from coronavirus - BBG
US Dollar (USD) Outlook Remains Focussed on US-China Trade War

US Dollar (USD) Outlook Remains Focussed on US-China Trade War

2019-11-02 13:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:
2-Hour DXY Price Chart

US Dollar Price Forecast: Neutral

  • Fed becoming more data dependent and recent data prints have been weak.
  • US-China trade war continues to weigh on global growth.

Brand New Q4 2019 US Dollar Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

US Dollar - Sideways to Lower Until Trade War Confusion Clears

The US dollar continues to be steered by US-China headlines and further calls from US President Trump for lower interest rates, a potentially volatile pair of drivers. Earlier this week the scheduled US-China meeting at the APEC trade summit later this month was cancelled due to ongoing riots in host country Chile, leaving the market in the dark when or if the meeting between the two superpowers will be rescheduled. US President Trump recently tweeted that China will soon be signing phase one of the trade agreement, although China seemed to be wary of President Trump’s enthusiasm, leaving the market suitably bemused.

President Trump’s Twitter account was busy this week post Wednesday’s FOMC meeting where the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, the third cut this year. Trump continued his attack on the Fed by tweeting, “The Fed has called it wrong from the beginning, too fast, too slow. They even tightened in the beginning. Others are running circles around them and laughing all the way to the bank”, before adding that “China is not our problem, the Federal Reserve is!”

At the FOMC meeting Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts would be data dependent - prompting Trump’s tweet - and the markets are now pricing in a 50/50 chance of a cut in January, with a 25-basis point cut fully priced-in at the July meeting. US data releases have been weak of late and while this week’s Q3 GDP release showed growth at reasonably robust pace of 1.9%, due to continued consumer spending, business investment declined due to trade war uncertainty. Third quarter US growth in 2018 was 3.4%.

All this continued uncertainty leaves the US dollar vulnerable and likely to fade lower. The recent three-month US dollar basket low, made on October 21, is under threat and a break and close below here could see further losses accrue.

US Dollar Basket Daily Price Chart (January – November 1, 2019)

US Dollar Basket Daily Price Chart

There are a handful of important US data releases next week, including ISM non-manufacturing and services and the Uni of Michigan sentiment reading at the end of the week. For a full rundown of all market moving economic data and events please see the DailyFX Calendar

IG Client Sentiment shows that how traders are positioned in a wide range of assets and markets.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the US Dollar (USD) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.