Weekly Trading Forecast: How Will Risk Trends and Dollar Fair as Trade Wars Escalate?
Disparate fundamental themes are starting to coalesce into a clear sense of general risk aversion. While the US-China trade war was due to further simmer towards its next boil over, President Trump lit an unexpected fuse with the vow of a blanket tariff against Mexico. With the tallies from trade war damage growing more numerous, we may find growth concerns and incapable safety nets overwhelm market stability.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision is likely to shake up the near-term outlook for AUD/USD amid bets for a 25bp rate-cut.
Sell in May and go away was evident with global indices on the backfoot as trade war tensions escalated. Equity markets will be looking to ECB, NFP and Fed’s Powell for a change in fortune.
These are good times for haven assets like the Japanese Yen, but the coming week’s events may just see some revival of risk appetite, short term though it will probably be.
The US Dollar seems biased higher as haven-seeking demand overwhelms Fed interest rate cut speculation amid escalating trade wars.
Euro traders will find themselves hot under the collar as the ECB announces its rate decision and will likely revise its growth outlook downward.
Amid a stable inflation backdrop, the drop in nominal bond rates like German Bunds, UK Gilts, and US Treasury yields has produced an environment of falling real yields, which is one of the more fundamentally bullish developments that could happen for gold prices.