We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • European Opening Calls from IG #FTSE 7338 -0.18% #DAX 13231 +0.01% #CAC 5907 -0.01% #AEX 596 -0.20% #MIB 23552 -0.11% #IBEX 9191 -0.04% #STOXX 3697 -0.06%
  • - #USDollar eyes #Powell second Congressional testimony - What were some of the key takeaways from his outlook? - Stock markets cautiously eye shaky US-China #trade talks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/14/US-Dollar-Stocks-Eye-Powell-Testimony-as-Trade-Talks-Stumble.html https://t.co/gKJr3DpVOO
  • AUD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/USD Price Trend Outlook in Positioning $AUDUSD $USDCAD $EURUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/14/AUDUSD-USDCAD-EURUSD-Price-Trend-Outlook-in-Positioning.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/1i334MvltQ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.56%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cCz4harA5v
  • My trade video for today: ' Dow and Emerging Market Divergence a Warning, Trade Wars Outshine Powell Testimony' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/11/14/Dow-and-Emerging-Market-Divergence-a-Warning-Trade-Wars-Outshine-Powell-Testimony.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/ktgLIKeW5s
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.34% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qc85e1c3xH
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% France 40: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.02% US 500: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/NUCz05xYNI
  • The $AUD appears to have resumed the dominant downtrend against its US counterpart after breaking support set from October lows. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/DW5oWIuMaX https://t.co/RYoyvGvkOd
  • Since late July, the economic news flow from Australia has been increasingly out-performing relative to economists’ expectations. -Citi #AUD
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP), Actual: 1.8% Expected: 1.1% Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-14
Sterling Price Weekly Forecast: Brexit Newsflow and Political Manoeuvres

Sterling Price Weekly Forecast: Brexit Newsflow and Political Manoeuvres

2019-08-18 04:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:
GBPUSD 2-Hour Price Chart

Sterling (GBP) Price Fundamental Forecast:Neutral

Q3 2019 GBP Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

No UK Data Next Week Will Leave Sterling Vulnerable to Rumor Risk

Sterling has nudged higher over the week, aided principally by slightly better-than-expected wages, jobs and retail sales data. UK inflation also edged higher and in a world without Brexit, these releases would have the Bank of England discussing whether the current monetary policy was appropriate or if it needed to be tightened. However, as has been the case for many, many months, Brexit is still the driver for Sterling and will remain so until October 31.

Next week there is no market moving hard UK data of note, leaving Sterling at risk of Brexit rumors and news flow. The UK market will also be holiday-thinned next week, leaving GBP potentially exposed to outsized moves in limited liquidity markets.

Brexit news flow continues unabated with the latest batch of headlines suggesting that a cross-party alliance of MPs may come together to form a national unity party if UK PM Boris Johnson loses the expected vote of no-confidence likely to be called in early September. The current Labour Party leader has said that he will act as interim PM is this succeeds ahead of an early general election with the Labour Party promising a second referendum. According to reports, four prominent remainer Conservative MPs are involved in talks with Corbyn.

Sterling technical are covered in a different section but the chart below shows a familiar pattern. Since late-April there have been three occasions when moves lower are met with a quick reversal before the overall bearish pattern takes over. Will the current move prove to be the fourth occasion?

GBPUSD Daily Chart (December 2018 - August 16, 2019)

GBPUSD Price Chart

The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail traders are 75.6% net-long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian bias. However daily and weekly changes suggest that GBPUSD prices may reverse higher.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.