We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Florida virus cases increase 4.7% vs prior 4.4% 7-day average - BBG
  • EU's Borrell says a coordinated response to situation between China and Hong Kong is in the works $EURCNH
  • Sentiment for the #Euro improved once again as investors were net buyers ($700mln) amid a re-establishing of bullish bets in the currency. Get your $EURUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/Jmyea7Qp03 https://t.co/k6sDlraRo2
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.62% Gold: 0.58% Oil - US Crude: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/KB7r8U1R8E
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.74%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 73.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/BJygBnwG6N
  • $Gold in focus after a few tests of support... buyers trying to push up to fresh high, bears saying not so fast. https://t.co/jsG6nm8Gah https://t.co/6q7H3DpuPG
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.27% Gold: 0.57% Oil - US Crude: -0.89% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OoRNG6e1hh
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.54% FTSE 100: 1.18% Germany 30: 1.08% Wall Street: 0.84% US 500: 0.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/PaeypV9oBz
  • GBP/USD continues to benefit from a weak US dollar and has added nearly four big figures from the end of June.Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/MKrznsTIJh https://t.co/sCkOgA8Nft
  • BoE Governor Bailey says there is a very long way to go, adds that he is very worried about jobs $GBP
Australian Dollar Looks to US-China Trade Headlines, RBA's Lowe

Australian Dollar Looks to US-China Trade Headlines, RBA's Lowe

2019-11-23 01:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUDUSD 2-Hour Price Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • AUD/USD remains very much driven by the twists of US-China trade talks
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe is due to speak
  • If he underscores recent dovishness the currency could slip

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar market will find itself short of heavyweight economic events in the coming week, which will probably leave global risk appetite in charge of its fate. That appetite will in turn remain in thrall to US-China trade headlines.

There’s some lack of joined-up narrative between the two global titans now. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He proclaimed himself cautiously optimistic about reaching a ‘phase 1 deal’ which would at least temporarily cool the trade war. However, the latest wire reports on the White House’s position suggest that even an interim deal is unlikely this year, with the time table possibly sliding into 2020.

It’s possible of course that both sides are indulging in some public signaling before December 15 when a new round of tariffs is set to be imposed on Chinese goods. In any case AUD/USD like other markets has responded to both stories, slipping on apparent US reticence and rising on Chinese optimism.

Will Mr. Lowe Echo Recent Dovishness?

This is likely to set the pattern for the next few days, in which the most important local data point is likely to be Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe’s speech in Sydney on Tuesday. The RBA knocked AUD/USD on November 18. The minutes of its last monetary policy meeting suggested that a case could have been made for cutting record-low borrowing costs again earlier this month. This shocked Aussie investors who had been looking to more rate cuts next year.

Until the RBA moderates this view then its probable that all future meetings will be considered ‘live’ for the possibility of a cut. The extent to which Lowe backs it up will probably be the markets’ main focus when he speaks. If he does, the clear lack of monetary support will weigh on the Aussie whenever investors allow themselves time off from the trade story.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

Daily AUDUSD Price Chart

However, for the moment that story is in the driving seat, and its headlines are unpredictable. It’s a neutral call this week.

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.