News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.77%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.07%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 MBA Mortgage Applications (23/JUL) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -4%
  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD) putting in a decent shift and back above $40k - ignoring the 'will they/won't they?' Amazon chatter. #bitcoin #btc @DailyFXTeam Prices via @IGcom
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain informed analyses from industry leaders with our free guides, available today. Download the Q3 guide:
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.53% Oil - US Crude: 0.29% Gold: 0.08% View the performance of all markets via
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.25% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.21% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.24% View the performance of all markets via
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.82% FTSE 100: 0.28% Germany 30: 0.19% US 500: 0.18% Wall Street: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long USD/JPY for the first time since Jul 20, 2021 09:00 GMT when USD/JPY traded near 109.86. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY weakness.
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
US Dollar May Rise vs Euro if CPI Data Cools Rate Cut Bets

US Dollar May Rise vs Euro if CPI Data Cools Rate Cut Bets

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst


  • US Dollar may rise if CPI data beats estimates and cools rate cut bets
  • Euro may fall vs USD if German ZEW Survey report spooks markets
  • Italian political risk could once again spook regional equities, Euro

Learn how to use political-risk analysis in your trading strategy!

The US Dollar may rise vs the Euro if year-on-year US CPI data beats the 1.7 percent forecast and cools Fed rate cut expectations. German ZEW Survey data may also stir additional volatility if the report undershoots (what are already-low) forecasts and spooks markets. Traders may then place a premium on liquidity over yields and would redirect capital into open arms of the US Dollar.


Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 31 percent probability of a 50-basis point cut by the Fed, up from about 22 percent August 9. A soft CPI reading may push this number into the 40 percent range, though market expectations may be more dovish than what the central bank has conveyed. Investors were showered with this cold reality at the most recent policy meeting.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate cut was not necessarily the start of an easing cycle but rather an insurance policy against future uncertainty. The result was a stronger US Dollar and weaker S&P 500 as investors panicked from the prospect that cheap capital may not come as soon as expected. But, greater uncertainty in the US-China trade war may continue to dampen investment and CPI and pressure the Fed to cut rates sooner.


German ZEW Survey Expectations are currently estimated to come in at -28, lower than the previous -24.5 print. A reading at that level would mark the lowest point since November 2011, a period when Greece’s government was facing a solvency crisis. Data out of the Eurozone has been tending to show weakness with Germany’s slowing economy sending a chill up the spine of investors from all over the world.

The region’s economic vulnerability is compounded by the political wounds it is sustaining from Brexit and volatile politics in the Mediterranean. Italy risk may once again make a reprise on the regional – and world – stage as Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini attempts to consolidate power and replace the current PM.

A Lega-Nord led government would likely run into a budgetary tussle with Brussels again. Only this time, the economic backdrop may be far less stable than it was six months ago. To learn more about how politics impacts financial markets, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.


Chart Showing Germam ZEW Survey Expectations


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.