Never miss a story from Dimitri Zabelin

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Dimitri Zabelin

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


  • EURUSD may continue its decline and delve further into critical support channel
  • The pair’s decline could be amplified if Eurozone CPI data undershoots forecasts
  • Data may fuel rate cut bets and give ECB impetus to loosen credit, reintroduce QE

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!


EURUSD may fall if Eurozone year-on-year CPI data falls short of the 1.2 percent forecast, which is an-already low estimate considering price growth has not been at that level since March 2018. If it undershoots, this would fall in line with the broader trend of underperformance in economic data where for several months reports have fallen short of economists’ estimates.

Furthermore, a lower-than-expected CPI print could fuel rate cut bets and provide further impetus for the ECB to reintroduce QE. Overnight index swaps are already showing an 85 percent probability of a cut by the September meeting which will only be amplified by signs of slower price growth. Christine Lagarde will be taking over Mario Draghi’s position as ECB President and will likely follow in his policy footsteps.

Growing trade tension between the EU and US may weigh on consumer and business confidence and further weigh on inflationary pressure. Washington and Brussels are in the processing of a resolving a 14-year-old dispute with the WTO as the meditating officer. A resolution to the quarrel will be announced by the end of the summer, though it may not be an outcome markets will welcome. It could be another tit-for-tat tariff tiff.

Follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri to stay up to date on market-moving geopolitical risks!


The pair is now within spitting distance of the upper bound of the 18-month descending resistance-now-turned-support channel. During Monday’s trading session the pair failed to break below, though the extended wick indicates a modest flirtation with the idea. Underperforming CPI data may be a catalyst in pressuring EURUSD lower to renter the channel and resume its previous downtrend at a steeper slope.


Chart Showing EURUSD


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter