We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Japan’s All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG) Actual: 0.0% Est: 0.1% Previous: 0.2% #JPY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.04%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 78.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cCfWKn4CzA
  • (ASEAN Fundamental Forecast) US Dollar Outlook: MYR, SGD May Fall on CPI. Rupiah to Drop on Cut? #USD $USDMYR $USDSGD $USDIDR - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/10/21/US-Dollar-Outlook-MYR-SGD-May-Fall-on-CPI-Rupiah-to-Drop-on-Cut.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/3u9AfXqbeN
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZjiVEE5Iuw
  • Heads up: Japan’s All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG) is due at 4:30 GMT (15 min) Est: 0.1% Previous: 0.2% #JPY
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (AUG) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-21
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.36% Wall Street: 0.31% France 40: 0.26% Germany 30: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2lBu42B9fy
  • Over the past 30 days, #Ghana Cedi, #Egyptian Pound and #Kenyan Shilling have been the best performing African currencies vs #USD with 0.85%, 0.67% and 0.17% spot returns respectively
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/m2sMVRiVef
  • LIVE NOW: Join Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri as he previews the upcoming week’s main political themes and discusses their impact on the financial markets. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
EURUSD May Have Volatile Spikes: Thinner Liquidity on US Holiday

EURUSD May Have Volatile Spikes: Thinner Liquidity on US Holiday

2019-07-04 06:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Junior Currency Analyst
Share:

THINNER LIQUIDITY ON US HOLIDAY, EURUSD FORECAST, ITALY BUDGET– TALKING POINTS

  • EURUSD may experience volatility as US market close for July 4 holiday
  • Euro breathes sigh of relief as Rome and Brussels agree on budget deficit
  • Italian 10-year bond yields plummet over 24% as Italy debt risks subside

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

EURUSD VOLATILITY AHEAD?

The magnitude of EURUSD price swings may be amplified because US markets will be closed for the July 4 holiday. This may become particularly evident if breaking news erupts that causes investors to flock to the US Dollar amid greater risk aversion. In the absence of major critical data releases out of the US and EU, markets may take the time to re-assess the fundamental outlook.

A major developed that occurred this week was the decision by the European Commission to not begin the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Italy. Rome revised its budget deficit down and narrowly avoided possibly incurring a $4 billion fine. The dispute between the EU and Italy gave markets a headache and was the leading cause behind the spike in Italian 10-year bond yields.

However, as tensions began to ease, investors perceived less risk associated with holding Italian sovereign debt, and the yield subsequently dropped almost 25 percent in 3 days, now trading at its lowest point since October 2016. For now, it seems, investors can breathe a sigh of relief as the third largest Eurozone economy is – for now at least – avoiding plummeting the entire region into a financial crisis.

WILL US STOCK MARKETS RETREAT?

Investors cheered this week’s achievement in the stock markets. The benchmark S&P 500 index reached a new high, breaking past the 3,000 barrier with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones achieving their own respective landmarks. However, negative RSI divergence is signaling slowing underlying momentum as US Treasuries continue to see significant capital inflows against the backdrop of alarming fundamentals.

CHART OF THE DAY: ITALY 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS AT THEIR LOWEST POINT SINCE OCTOBER 2016

Chart Showing Italian 10-year bond yields

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.