We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • CHF Switzerland Aug Exports MM Actual: -4.4% Previous: -1.2% Imports MM Actual: 1.0% Previous: -0.5% Swiss Watch Exports YY Actual: 1.5% Previous: 4.7%
  • European Opening Calls: From IG #FTSE 7299 -0.20% #DAX 12384 -0.04% #CAC 5621 +0.01% #IBEX 9046 +0.16% #STOXX 3529 +0.03%
  • Follow @DailyFXedu for your regular #webinar updates with @DailyFX analysts and catch up on the webinars you missed. https://t.co/72SjAaa27X
  • My trading video for today: $Dollar and S&P 500 Strategy for the #FOMC Rate Decision' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/09/19/Dollar-and-SP-500-Steady-After-Fed-Cut-Monetary-Policy-Remains-Top-Concern.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
  • How can you avoid #FOMOintrading with easy seven steps to creating a trading plan? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/y2UvtIRZAG https://t.co/mBzJBviQDO
  • 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL), Actual: 0.2% Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=TweetRobot&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.35%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.89%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SXDGRBOC4e
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FYKlVlhoR3
  • Heads Up: 🇯🇵 (JPY) All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL) due at 04:30:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.2% Previous: -0.8%
Euro and Stocks May Fall on Gloomy Data, Italy Instability Fears

Euro and Stocks May Fall on Gloomy Data, Italy Instability Fears

2019-04-18 06:37:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

TALKING POINTS – YEN, AUSSIE DOLLAR, EURO, STOCKS, ITALY, PMI, RETAIL SALES

  • Aussie Dollar struggles to make good on a second day of upbeat data flow
  • Yen may extend gains as bellwether stock index futures hint at risk-off bias
  • EZ and US data flow, political jitters in Italy may sour market sentiment

The Australian Dollar failed to make much of a second day of supportive economic data flow. The currency was unable to sustain a brief upward spike following better-than-expected jobs data having similarly shrugged at outperforming Chinese GDP data just the prior day.

Furthermore, the sentiment-linked Canadian and New Zealand Dollars faced noticeably concentrated selling pressure while the anti-risk Japanese Yen traded broadly higher. In all, this seemed to imply a broad-based defensive pivot across the G10 FX space.

Most Asia Pacific stocks traded tellingly lower. Healthcare names led the decline, echoing a similar dynamic on Wall Street. Futures tracking bellwether US and European equity index futures are pointing meaningfully lower, hinting at continued de-risking in the hours ahead.

EUROZONE AND US DATA, ITALIAN BUDGET WOES MAY COOL RISK APPETITE

Eurozone PMI figures are now in focus on the data docket. The regional composite gauge is expected to show a pickup in the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth in the single currency area in April. However, the projected rise would still put the index within a hair of January’s near-five-year low.

Furthermore, political instability fears may overshadow a PMI uptick. Lawmakers in Italy are set to debate the government’s latest economic forecast updates. These brought sharp downgrades of growth and budget deficit projections.

Traders will be keen to listen along, looking for signs suggesting that another clash between Rome and EU authorities in Brussels is ahead. For its part, the administration seems to be hoping that a round of privatizations will allow it some space for deficit reduction.

If it appears that Italy will struggle to bring down the budget shortfall in line with last year’s commitments – stoking political instability fears as regional bigwigs are pushed to consider penalties on the eve of already troubling European Parliament elections – risk appetite and the Euro might wilt.

Analogous US PMI statistics as well as the retail sales report could compound negativity. Data flow out of the world’s largest economy has increasingly disappointed relative to baseline projections over recent months, hinting analysts’ models are overly optimistic and setting the stage for continued underperformance.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!

CHART OF THE DAY – S&P 500 CHART WARNS BEARISH REVERSAL MAY BE IMMINENT

S&P 500 chart warns bearish reversal may be imminent

Bearish cues continue to build up in S&P 500 technical positioning. The appearance of a Rising Wedge formation along with negative RSI divergence have been warning of a looming top for some time. A series of indecisive candles with telltale extension at the upper wick – speaking to failed forays to the upside – is now seeing tepid follow-through toward the Wedge floor.

Confirmation of reversal requires a close below this as well as the 2865.00-78.50 resistance turned-turned-support zone. Such a move would initially expose the next downside barrier in the 2807.50-24.25 area. The broader implications would be weightier however, arguing for a double top having been set below 2950 and beckoning a lasting risk-off pivot across worldwide capital markets.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.