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US Dollar May Rise on CPI, Euro Casts Worried Eye on Italy and France

US Dollar May Rise on CPI, Euro Casts Worried Eye on Italy and France

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, CPI, FED, EURO, ITALY, FRANCE, EU

  • US Dollar may rise as CPI data helps boost Fed rate hike outlook
  • Euro vulnerable amid lingering political turmoil in Italy, France
  • Italian PM Conte, EC’s Juncker meeting eyed before EU summit

A barebones offering on the European economic data front puts politics back into the spotlight, with all eyes on a meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. They will try to iron out a lingering budget dispute before Thursday’s EU leaders’ summit.

Mr Conte is perhaps the most forthcoming of among the leaders of Rome’s recently installed anti-establishment government. If he is unable to at least begin to mend fences with regional authorities in Brussels at this sit-down, the Euro is likely to decline amid worries about punitive action ahead.

Progress has been made more difficult by recent turmoil in France. Protests against a tax hike have forced President Emmanuel Macron into a speedy retreat that might push his country’s deficit beyond EU-mandated limits. If this is approached leniently, Italian populists have said they will demand treatment in kind.

Later in the day, all eyes will turn to November’s US CPI report. The core inflation rate is expected to register broadly on-trend for the year at 2.2 percent. That might revive recently sagging rate hike bets as traders conclude a data-dependent Fed need not be dovish, boosting the US Dollar.

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** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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