News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • S&P 500 on the verge of getting separation from March trend-line. Nasdaq 100 below March trend-line, triggering H&S pattern. Get your #equities market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/quhMgBpoiq https://t.co/n0jtTnVNwl
  • Japanese Gov't recommends 2-week extension of Tokyo virus emergency - BBG $JPY
  • While the rise in yields is weighing on risk trends, carry trade didn't seem to take the hit. In fact, the charge in US yields seems to have far outweighed the de-risking from $USDJPY's perspective: https://t.co/KpOpgopOep
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.40% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.69% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.81% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.90% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/8Tvotykz9y
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.33% Gold: -0.69% Silver: -2.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/faJTbi16VK
  • AUD/USD now off daily lows, remains much weaker as a result of broad US Dollar strength $AUDUSD https://t.co/OkdKWbepAR
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 70.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XXOjh5LmaB
  • Silver price action stalls between Moving Averages. Platinum prices currently confined by Fibonacci Support. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/Nbl8FDmfps https://t.co/VyuZzP8w2q
  • US Markets at the Close $NDX 12464.0 -1.73% $SPX 3768.49 -1.34% $DJI 30924.14 -1.11%
  • USD/JPY stronger during trade, now pushing towards 108 level $USDJPY https://t.co/GemouFGvHF
Trump Trade War Boosts Yen and Franc, ECB Forum Gets Underway

Trump Trade War Boosts Yen and Franc, ECB Forum Gets Underway

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

TALKING POINTS – TRADE WAR, CHINA, YEN, US DOLLAR, ECB FORUM

  • Yen, Swiss Franc rise as US, China trade war sours risk appetite
  • FTSE 100, S&P 500 index futures hint more of the same is ahead
  • ECB Forum is getting started but may be overshadowed for now

The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc pushed higher for a second day in Asia Pacific trade as an escalating trade war between the US and China sent markets scrambling. Regional bourses bled, with the regional MSCI equities benchmark on pace to suffer its largest loss in seven days at 1.3 percent. The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar bore the brunt of selling pressure in the G10 FX space.

BACKGROUND: A Brief History of Trade Wars, 1900-Present

Looking ahead, a quiet offering on the economic data front is likely to keep trade tensions in the spotlight. Futures tracking the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 equity benchmarks are pointing sharply lower, hinting the risk-off mood is set to persist when London and New York come online. That means overnight price dynamics are likely to find follow-through.

The ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal is also of note. Top central banksleaders will join eminent economists to discuss price- and wage-setting in advanced countries. That gets at the heart of the post-crisis challenge facing policymakers: growth and labor markets have recovered but inflation remains stubbornly low across much of the developed world. This has prolonged ultra-loose monetary policy settings.

These talks are made particularly poignant by the immediate impact of the forces being discussed on asset prices. Last week was defined by a sharp surge in the US Dollar and a sinking Euro after the Fed – the leader in policy normalization – sounded a hawkish tone while the ECB signaled an overwhelmingly dovish disposition even as it planned to end its QE program.

The announcements seemed to sound the death knell for the “catch-up” narrative envisioning top central banks chasing after the Fed’s hawkish lead amid broadening economic recovery. That this would shrink the greenback’s yield advantage accounted for most of its losses in 2017. Repricing for a strong-USD world shaped by a widening policy gap between the Fed its peers has already pushed it to an 11-month high.

To that end, traders will almost certainly scrutinize soundbites from Sintra for their immediate policy implications, which may inspire volatility across financial markets. To the extent that they bolster the sense that the Fed stands mostly alone in its readiness to tighten with gusto, the outing might offer the US unit fresh fodder for gains. Trade war concerns may overshadow this narrative in the very near term however.

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION

Asia Pacific Trading Session Economic Calendar

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

Trump Trade War Boosts Yen and Franc, ECB Forum Gets Underway

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES