News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Australian #Dollar Outlook: #Aussie Rallies to Key Zone- $AUDUSD Levels - https://t.co/VMxxlOmcqJ https://t.co/jBVvZLsF76
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.16%, while traders in AUD/JPY are at opposite extremes with 73.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Bc6hKHUGzl
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.36% Silver: 0.12% Oil - US Crude: -1.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZDxcyoVg5i
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.67% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.63% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.56% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.39% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.36% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/47bbOmcLa2
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.70% Wall Street: 0.34% FTSE 100: 0.05% France 40: 0.04% Germany 30: -0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/IFEuspE5LI
  • Speaker Pelosi now meeting with Progressives....we should know soon if the vote on the infrastructure bill will indeed happen, left wing Democrats can still tank the legislation
  • Biden taking a victory lap, but let's see what Progressives say/do first $SPX
  • Canadian Dollar Price Action Setups: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/10/28/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-USD-CAD-USDCAD-CADJPY-CAD-JPY-EURCAD-EUR-CAD.html $CAD https://t.co/42AiAxXjWx
  • USD/MXN reverses bearish momentum as yields stabilize. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/KUbVCG7vkg https://t.co/RUvVyPyGz3
  • The Nasdaq 100 is attempting to finally regain its record high ahead of Amazon and Apple earnings and EURUSD is rallying after the ECB and US GDP. DailyFX's @JohnKicklighter discusses top market movers below! https://t.co/eJGkJcFwG9
Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

TALKING POINTS – ECB, EURO, AUSSIE & NEW ZEALAND DOLLARS

  • Euro may fall as the ECB casts doubt on near-term QE tapering
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars may rise as dovish Draghi lifts risk appetite
  • US Dollar correcting from six week high in Asia Pacific session

All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement in European trading hours. No formal changes to the central bank’s posture are expected but traders will probably put considerable weight on the tone of remarks made by President Mario Draghi at the subsequent press conference. A dovish lean might weigh on the Euro but could offer a lift to broad-based risk appetite.

Mr Draghi and his colleagues have signaled they are well aware of incoming disinflationary pressure from base effects arising the single currency’s explosive gains last year. That may be difficult to overcome by an economy where growth seems to have slowed sharply in the first quarter, according to leading PMI surveys. This might prompt signaling that an extension of QE remains on the table.

The current program making €30 billion in asset purchases per month expires in September. An abrupt end seems broadly understood as ill-advised, so traders have been waiting for the ECB to unveil whether it will “taper” uptake into the current end-date, announce a plan to begin doing so thereafter, or prolong the effort. Setting the stage for a June decision alongside a forecast update may well happen today.

Comments that explicitly cast doubt on whether the ECB favors tapering versus prolonging QE bode ill for the Euro. So too does vague rhetoric hinting that uncertain officials fear tightening prematurely. The prospect of a longer-lasting ECB liquidity backstop may boost risk appetite however, boosting the sentiment-geared Aussie and New Zealand Dollars.

The US Dollar corrected lower in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade, retracing some of its steps after soaring to a six-week high. Swelling Fed rate hike speculation still seems to be the driving catalyst, with the spread between the 10-and 2-year Treasury bond yield telling widening to the biggest in a month. Meanwhile, the tightening path through 2019 priced into Fed Funds futures steepened.

See our quarterly FX market forecasts to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION

Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

Euro May Fall as Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise on Chastened ECB Stance

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES