News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Sources close to the Chinese Government have told Asia Markets a deal that will see China Evergrande (3333 HK) restructured into three seperate entities is currently being finalised by the Chinese Communist Party and could be announced within days.
  • Shadow MPC as hawkish as ever - They have been calling for the BoE to end QE early since June - Often a big difference in what people think a central bank should do and will do https://t.co/RAakSI8gI6
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/XfrcQXJu0Z
  • IFO lowers German 2021 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.3% - Raises 2022 forecast to 5.1% from 4.3%
  • 🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) Actual: 4.9% Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • 🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) Actual: 4.08% Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • ECB's Muller - ECB to discuss raising regular QE when PEPP ends $EUR
US Dollar May Rise While Commodity FX Suffers on CPI Uptick

US Dollar May Rise While Commodity FX Suffers on CPI Uptick

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie, NZ Dollar gain as markets look ahead to US inflation data
  • US Dollar may rise if CPI reboots bets on steep Fed rate hike path
  • Yen may rise as commodity bloc FX suffers if data sours sentiment

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars edged cautiously higher in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming US CPI report. The data is expected to show that the headline inflation rate edged up to 2.2 percent in February.

A print in line with forecasts would fall well within the range prevailing since September and may help cool fears about an aggressive Fed rate hike cycle. Investors breathed a sigh of relief Friday as official jobs data showed wage inflation dropped to 2.6 percent, hinting January’s spike might have been a one-off.

Further evidence reinforcing the likelihood of such a scenario would be understandably supportive for the commodity Dollars, which compete with their US namesake for the top spot on the G10 FX yield spectrum. Gains may prove fleeting however if CPI prints meaningfully higher than expected.

PMI survey data revealed the fastest service-sector price growth in five months. The manufacturing side was even more eye-catching, with factory-gate price growth at four-year high. If this is echoed in today’s release, worries about steep Fed tightening are likely to return.

This would be most obviously uplifting for the US Dollar. The perennially anti-risk Japanese Yen may also trade higher if broader risk aversion is set off. The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars look most vulnerable in such circumstances, facing dual headwinds from relative policy bets and deteriorating sentiment.

Get help building confidence in your FX trading strategy with our free guide!

Asia Pacific Trading Session

US Dollar May Rise While Commodity FX Suffers on CPI Uptick

European Trading Session

No data.

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES