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Yen May Rise as US Government Shutdown Sours Market Mood

Yen May Rise as US Government Shutdown Sours Market Mood

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen may rise amid risk aversion as US government shutdown continues
  • IMF to unveil fresh forecasts in latest World Economic Outlook report
  • ‘Remain’-leaning UK House of Lords takes up formal Brexit legislation

A quiet day on European and US economic data front is likely to put sentiment trends at the forefront as the trading week begins. Futures tracking the benchmark FTSE 100 and S&P 500 stock indexes are pointing lower before London and New York come online, hinting at an overall risk-off bias. That may translate into gains for the Japanese Yen as investors unwind carry trades funded in the standby low-yielding currency.

Chief among the narratives shaping the markets’ mood in the near term is the ongoing US government shutdown. Congressional lawmakers failed to cobble together a budget deal over the weekend, so the horse-trading will continue Monday. The longer the impasse lasts, the greater headwind it will represent for overall economic growth, and thereby for market-wide risk appetite.

Elsewhere, the IMF will publish an updated World Economic Outlook containing forecasts that will include – among other new developments – the impact of fiscal stimulus to be provided by US tax cut legislation passed late last year. Meanwhile, the UK House of Lords – a relatively pro-EU body – will take up the European Union Withdrawal Bill, the legislation meant to formally pave the way for Brexit.

What are DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018? Find out here!

Asia Session

Yen May Rise as US Government Shutdown Sours Market Mood

European Session

Yen May Rise as US Government Shutdown Sours Market Mood

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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