News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine approved for use in the UK - BBG
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Inflation Rate YoY (NOV) due at 07:30 GMT (15min) Expected: -0.5% Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • 🇩🇪 Retail Sales YoY (OCT) Actual: 8.2% Expected: 5.9% Previous: 6.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Retail Sales YoY (OCT) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.9% Previous: 6.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-02
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.406%) S&P 500 (-0.246%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.122%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Seems there is some surprise on reports (from NYT) that President-Elect Biden will not reverse the Phase One trade deal and tariffs on China. The international mood towards China is particularly cool. Now, relations with Canada and Mexico or the EU over Airbus is another matter
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/EyHrHRYZfA
  • IGCS hints that #gold may reverse higher as the #SP500 aims for new highs. Things are looking a little bit more choppy for the growth-linked Australian Dollar. Check out my full report with webinar recording here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/12/02/Gold-Price-SP-500-AUDUSD-Forecast-How-Might-Retail-Traders-Behave-Next.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/8ueRCILgdY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.48%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 76.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cVNpB5eeUn
  • President-Elect Joe Biden: Says won't immediately remove China phase-one tariffs, want to conduct full review of existing deal -BBG citing NYT
US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Fed Rate Hike Path Projections

US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Fed Rate Hike Path Projections

2017-09-20 06:44:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Quiet European data docket puts Fed rate decision in the spotlight
  • The start of “quantitative tightening” an all-but-forgone conclusion
  • US Dollar outlook hinges on rate hike path forecast through 2019

A lackluster offering on the European economic data docket puts the Fed monetary policy announcement firmly in the spotlight. The FOMC committee is expected to unveil its plan for so-called “quantitative tightening” (QT) – a program to unwind its swollen post-crisis balance sheet – as well as offer an update of official rate hike path projections.

Chair Janet Yellen and company have extensively talked up the onset of QT in recent months, making its emergence all but certainly priced in. Fed officials have also stressed that they want the pace of asset runoff to be so gentle as to make the process go nearly unnoticed, meaning that traders are unlikely to be especially disappointed even if the first foray seems unduly timid.

This means it is the revised rate hike forecast that has the most potential to drive volatility. Traders price in a close to even chance of a third increase this year (52.5 percent), leaving ample room to adjust in the hawkish or dovish direction. 2018 and 2019 projections may also be important in that they will reveal if softer inflation in the first half of this year have made for shallower long-term path.

On balance, a call for one more hike in 2017 and a slight downward revision of 2018 and 2019 tightening prospects seem to be status quo. A supportive scenario for the US Dollar would see the latter readings left unchanged, with an upgrade likely to offer a more sizable lift. Dropping the call for another increase this year and lowering long-term expectations seems like the most dovish, USD-negative alternative.

The New Zealand Dollar was most active in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The unit spent most of the session on the defensive as prices corrected following yesterday’s broad outperformance. The Kiwi came roaring back higher later in the day however after a poll showed the incumbent National party widening its lead on rival Labour ahead of a general election on September 23.

Have a question about trading in the FX markets? Join a Q&A webinar and ask it live!

Asia Session

US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Fed Rate Hike Path Projections

European Session

US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Fed Rate Hike Path Projections

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES