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US Dollar Eyes CPI, Liquidity Drain May Boost Knee-Jerk Volatility

US Dollar Eyes CPI, Liquidity Drain May Boost Knee-Jerk Volatility

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • G10 FX marks time Good Friday market closures drain liquidity
  • US Dollar may edge lower if US CPI falls short of expectations
  • Thin liquidity conditions may amplify knee-jerk volatility threat

The major currencies marked time in Asian trade as liquidity levels diminished amid market closures for the Good Friday holiday. Bourses in Australia and Hong Kong were shuttered while a lull in regional news-flow saw markets in mainland China and Japan follow Wall Street lower, offering nothing especially novel.

Exchanges have closed for the week in Europe and North America as well, hinting that OTC market activity may remain quiet from here and into the weekend. The release of the March US CPI report will mark a brief respite from the silence.

The core on-year inflation rate is expected to tick up to 2.3 percent, a hair above the trend average at 2.2 percent. US data outcomes have increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over the past month however, opening the door for a downside surprise.

A soft print may undercut Fed rate hike expectations to some extent, weighing on the US Dollar. The extent of follow-through may be limited at best however absent a particularly dramatic deviation from baseline projections.

Still, thin liquidity can amplify price swings if something truly eye-catching crosses the wires, be it CPI or an unforeseen headline (like a disturbing soundbite from the White House, for example). That warns of elevated knee-jerk volatility risk, meaning traders would be wise to proceed with caution.

What will drive US Dollar trends through June? See our forecast to find out!

Asia Session

US Dollar Eyes CPI, Liquidity Drain May Boost Knee-Jerk Volatility

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** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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