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Yen Falls as Stocks Rise, US Dollar May Decline as FOMC Looms

Yen Falls as Stocks Rise, US Dollar May Decline as FOMC Looms

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen drops as ECB stimulus boost sends global shares upward
  • Lull in key event risk may make for quiet end to trading week
  • US Dollar may decline in pre-positioning for FOMC meeting

The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as most Asian stocks advanced, putting pressure on the perennial anti-risk currency. Regional shares followed Wall Street higher after the ECB expanded its monetary stimulus effort.

Mario Draghi and company extended QE asset purchases to run through 2017 from the previous end date at the end of March. The size of monthly asset purchases was lowered from €80 to €60 billion in the nine months from April through December.

The markets’ baseline expectation ahead of the ECB policy announcement favored a 6-month extension that kept the current pace of uptake unchanged. Compared to this, the central bank’s new scheme amounts to a net €60bnin additional accommodation.

From here, a quiet data docket in European and US trading hours argues for congestion as markets digest recent volatility. A US Dollar pullback may be in the cards amid pre-positioning for next week’s FOMC announcement as traders weigh the possibility that the Fed’s 2017 outlook will be more timid than their own.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

0.40%

0.5%

21:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (NOV)

-0.3%

-

0.6%

23:50

JPY

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (4Q)

3

-

1.9

23:50

JPY

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (4Q)

7.5

-

2.9

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (NOV)

4.0%

3.7%

3.7%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (NOV)

3.4%

3.2%

3.1%

0:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (OCT)

-0.8%

-1.0%

1.5%

0:30

AUD

Investment Lending (OCT)

0.7%

-

5.1%

0:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (OCT)

-0.8%

-

0.8%

1:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (NOV)

2.3%

2.2%

2.1%

1:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (NOV)

3.3%

2.3%

1.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (NOV)

3.3%

3.2%

Medium

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (NOV)

3.3%

3.3%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (OCT)

22.0b

24.2b

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (OCT)

22.0b

24.2b

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (OCT)

0.9%

-1.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (OCT)

1.1%

-0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Labor Costs WDA (YoY) (3Q)

-

1.8%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Labor Costs SA (QoQ) (3Q)

-

0.2%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Budget Balance YTD (OCT)

-

-83.0b

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.6%

-1.1%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

-0.6%

-1.1%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (OCT)

0.7%

-1.1%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (OCT)

0.1%

-0.9%

Low

9:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (OCT)

-11800

-12698

Medium

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (OCT)

-3450

-3969

Medium

9:30

GBP

Trade Balance (£/Mn) (OCT)

-4300

-5221

Medium

9:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (MoM) (OCT)

0.2%

0.3%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (YoY) (OCT)

-0.1%

0.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (NOV)

-

2.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0144

1.0420

1.0517

1.0696

1.0793

1.0972

1.1248

GBP/USD

1.2301

1.2457

1.2522

1.2613

1.2678

1.2769

1.2925

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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