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Euro Eyeing German CPI as US Dollar Braces for 3Q GDP Data

Euro Eyeing German CPI as US Dollar Braces for 3Q GDP Data

2016-10-28 08:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro may see near-term gains on strong German CPI figures
  • US Dollar looks to third-quarter GDP data to inform Fed bets
  • Follow-through on both currencies’ moves may prove limited

The preliminary set of October’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.8 percent, the highest in two years.

Markets seem to have taken to the idea that the ECB is angling to taper QE asset purchases after the existing effort runs its course in March 2017. This is despite vocal protestations from policymakers and the glacial pace of improvement on region-wide price growth.

Accelerating inflation in the region’s largest economy may lend near-term credence to this (highly improbable) scenario, offering a degree of temporary support to the Euro. Any gains are likely to be short-lived however.

The third-quarter US GDP report enters the spotlight later in the day. The economy is expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 2.6 percent, the fastest since the second quarter of last year. A strong print may fuel Fed rate hike speculation, pushing the US Dollar broadly higher.

Worryingly, US economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to baseline forecasts in recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. The possibility of such an outcome is reinforced by ominous leading indications from Markit PMI surveys and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model.

A disappointment will not necessarily scatter rate hike bets. Indeed, the Fed has managed to talk up the priced-in probability of December tightening to nearly 73 percent despite lackluster news-flow. Still, the greenback may take a leg lower if GDP data disappoints in a material way.

What do past price patterns hint about on-coming FX trends? Find out here.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT)

-3

-3

-1

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (SEP)

3.0%

3.1%

3.1%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (SEP)

1.38

1.38

1.37

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (SEP)

-2.1%

-2.7%

-4.6%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (SEP)

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (OCT)

0.1%

-0.4%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT)

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT)

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

00:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)

2.7%

-

6.1%

00:30

AUD

PPI (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

-

0.1%

00:30

AUD

PPI (YoY) (3Q)

0.5%

-

1.0%

05:00

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

05:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (3Q A)

0.2% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

05:30

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (3Q A)

1.1% (A)

1.3%

Medium

07:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (OCT)

104.7 (A)

101.6

Low

07:30

EUR

ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (OCT)

104.9

104.9

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (OCT)

0.46

0.45

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (OCT)

-1.6

-1.7

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (OCT)

10

10

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (OCT F)

-8

-8

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (OCT P)

0.2%

0.1%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (OCT P)

0.8%

0.7%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0789

1.0848

1.0873

1.0907

1.0932

1.0966

1.1025

GBP/USD

1.1949

1.2072

1.2118

1.2195

1.2241

1.2318

1.2441

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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