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Pound Looks to UK GDP to Gauge Growth Trends After Brexit Vote

Pound Looks to UK GDP to Gauge Growth Trends After Brexit Vote

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound looks to UK GDP to gauge post-Brexit growth trends
  • US Dollar unlikely find lasting lead in Durable Goods Orders data
  • Australian Dollar down as risk appetite sours in overnight session

Third-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The release will mark the first look at cumulative growth trends since Brexit referendum. Expectations suggest output added 0.3 percent in the three months through September, amounting to the weakest performance in a year.

UK news-flow has tended outperform relative to consensus forecasts in recent months, suggesting analysts’ models have underestimated the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome could offer a near-term boost to British Pound but follow-through may prove lacking.

Leading survey data suggests that the pace of economic activity growth has fully recovered from a deep slide in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the EU, registering at an eight-month high in September. As such, a GDP print that strikes an upbeat tone is unlikely to prove especially surprising.

Sterling may be further capped considering the BOE has maintained a firmly dovish bias even as it admitted that the UK has shown to be more resilient than expected after the referendum outcome. This likely reflects the inherent lag in businesses’ ability to adjust to negativity, meaning the worst may yet loom ahead.

Later in the day, the US Durable Goods Orders report enters the spotlight. A flat result is expected in September, which would put the volatile data series squarely at its 12-month average and offer a relatively lead for Fed rate hike speculation.

With that in mind, the release may mean relatively little for the US Dollar. Indeed, traders may already be reluctant to show directional conviction ahead of Friday’s release of GDP figures. That is projected to show annualized growth accelerated to 2.5 percent, the strongest since the second quarter of last year.

The Australian Dollar declined in overnight trade. The move tracked losses across Asian stock exchanges to suggest souring sentiment as the source of selling pressure facing the risk-sensitive currency. Sterling corrected lower having broadly outperformed against its major counterparts yesterday.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (SEP)

-1436m

-1145m

-1265m

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (SEP)

3.47b

3.53b

3.38b

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (SEP)

4.90b

4.68b

4.62b

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NZ$) (SEP)

-3404m

-3113m

-3109m

00:30

AUD

Export Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)

3.5%

2.0%

1.4%

00:30

AUD

Import Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)

-1.0%

-0.8%

-1.0%

01:00

CNY

Swift Global Payments CNY (SEP)

2.03%

-

1.86%

01:30

CNY

Industrial Profits (YoY) (SEP)

7.7%

-

19.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (SEP)

-

1.53

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (SEP)

5.1%

5.1%

Low

08:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (3Q A)

0.3%

0.7%

High

08:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (3Q A)

2.1%

2.1%

High

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

0.4%

Low

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (AUG)

0.8%

0.6%

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Retailing Reported Sales (OCT)

-2

-8

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales (OCT)

-

17

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0768

1.0839

1.0873

1.0910

1.0944

1.0981

1.1052

GBP/USD

1.2034

1.2126

1.2186

1.2218

1.2278

1.2310

1.2402

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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