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Aussie Dollar Drops After Bond Sale, Euro at Risk on German GDP

Aussie Dollar Drops After Bond Sale, Euro at Risk on German GDP

2016-08-12 04:13:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar drops after 7-year government bond auction results
  • Euro may decline if 2Q German GDP figures stoke ECB easing bets
  • US retail sales, consumer confidence data may drive Fed speculation

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling after the results of a 7-year government bond auction crossed the wires. The bid-to-cover ratio registered at 2.39 and the average yield posted at 1.71 percent, down from 3.00 and 1.73 percent recorded the last time analogous paper was sold in late July.

The results point to reduced demand and weaker rate expectations, which may imply bets on further RBA easing ahead. Indeed, front-end borrowing costs fell alongside the currency. Traders are currently pricing in at least one more 25bps reduction in the cash rate over the coming 12 months. The Yen weakened as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index advanced, eroding demand for the anti-risk currency.

Looking ahead, second-quarter German GDP figures enter the spotlight. Output is expected to add 0.2 percent, marking the smallest gain since the third quarter of 2014. A soft result may weigh on risk appetite, punishing sentiment-geared currencies including the Aussie. It may also fuel ECB stimulus expansion bets, sending the Euro downward.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to July’s US Retail Sales report and Augusts’ preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence reading. Receipts growth is expected to slow (0.4 percent vs. 0.6 percent prior) while sentiment firms (91.5 vs. 90.0 prior). It will be curious to see if the results create momentum in the priced-in Fed rate hike outlook, where indecision has prevailed for the past three weeks.

What do retail traders’ buying and selling decisions say about FX price trends? Find out here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JUL)

55.8

-

57.6

22:45

NZD

Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (2Q)

2.3%

1.0%

1.0%

01:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (AU$) (JUN)

25.5b

-

26.0b

01:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (AU$) (JUN)

52.2b

-

51.9b

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)

6.0%

6.2%

6.2%

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL)

6.0%

6.0%

6.0%

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)

10.2%

10.5%

10.6%

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL)

10.3%

10.3%

10.3%

02:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL)

8.1%

8.9%

9.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JUL)

-

0.6%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JUL)

-

-1.5%

Low

06:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (JUL F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (JUL F)

0.4%

0.4%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German GDP SA (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.7%

High

06:00

EUR

German GDP WDA (YoY) (2Q P)

1.4%

1.6%

High

06:00

EUR

German GDP NSA (YoY) (2Q P)

2.8%

1.3%

High

08:00

EUR

Italian GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.2%

0.3%

Medium

08:00

EUR

Italian GDP (YoY) (2Q P)

0.8%

1.0%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Construction Output (MoM) (JUN)

-1.0%

-2.1%

Low

08:30

GBP

Construction Output (YoY) (JUN)

-2.1%

-1.9%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

0.5%

-1.2%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

0.7%

0.5%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)

0.3%

0.3%

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (2Q P)

1.6%

1.6%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1043

1.1099

1.1118

1.1155

1.1174

1.1211

1.1267

GBP/USD

1.2789

1.2881

1.2919

1.2973

1.3011

1.3065

1.3157

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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