We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ASX 200 and AUD/JPY are at risk of losses as cases of Covid-19 continue to climb in Victoria, Australia’s second-most populous state. Get your #ASX market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/O0LNvhy4eY https://t.co/mS9vLeVU5Y
  • The Dow Jones could fall based on positioning signals, will the growth-linked Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar follow? If so, what are the technical barriers ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/yJrlR5C00P https://t.co/W45z2yNjr0
  • Further gains in USD/IDR could be curbed as USD/PHP establishes a floor around 2017 lows. USD/MYR may fall next as USD/SGD fast approaches a key falling trend line.Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9JgZm2n8Fl https://t.co/Yg6WSFxt8T
  • The New Zealand Dollar is aiming higher, with NZD/USD eyeing fresh yearly highs while AUD/NZD may be carving out a bearish Head and Shoulders chart pattern. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/osFxXvq5xF https://t.co/zcmqsFR9tg
  • RT @FxWestwater: $EURUSD & $AUDUSD in Focus Ahead of #ECB, Jobs & Retail Sales - @DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/07/10/eurusd-audusd-eur-usd-aud-usd-in-focus-ahead-of-ecb-jobs-retail-sales.html https://t.co/uBR27tPwgF
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/S9CEcBm5Qe https://t.co/xOuBrIfm9o
  • @JMcQueenFX https://t.co/TvREDx53du
  • Here's an interesting stat before the weekend - At ~$183 billion, Jeff Bezos' net worth would be the 29th largest stock by market capitalization on the $SPX ranking between Pepsi and Comcast $AMZN is truly remarkable
  • Texas virus cases increase 4.2%, above prior 3.9% 7-day average - BBG
  • I know it is not a coincidence that trade war pressures rise when markets are doing well to help reserve stability. I don't think this strategy will work as well in the US-EU confrontation ($EURUSD) as it has US-China ($USDCNH) https://t.co/R19dytlgIY
British Pound May Rise if Bank of England Issues Rate Cut

British Pound May Rise if Bank of England Issues Rate Cut

2016-07-14 10:11:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Pound soars with risky assets before Bank of England interest rate decision
  • MPC rate cut may boost Sterling as financial stability overshadows yields
  • NZ Dollar drops as RBNZ hints stage is set for interest rate cut in August

Risk appetite is swelling as markets turn their attention to the Bank of England monetary policy announcement. A narrow majority of economists polled by Bloomberg (31/54) expect the central will reduce the benchmark lending rate, with most projecting a 25bps cut to a record–low 0.25 percent. The anti-risk Japanese Yenis underperforming while the sentiment-geared Australian and Canadian Dollars are tracking share prices higher.

The New Zealand Dollar is diverging from the broader risk-on trade dynamics. The currency plunged after the RBNZ said that it would publish an assessment of economic trends on July 21 outside the usual meeting schedule, accounting for the long gap between June and August policy announcements. The Kiwi plunged alongside benchmark bond yields, suggesting traders interpreted this as stage-setting for a rate cut next month.

Perhaps most interestingly, the British Pound is likewise rallying alongside risky assets. This is not as counter-intuitive as it appears at first glance. Investors worried about knock-on effects from post-Brexit instability may see a cut as ultimately good for UK financial health and that of the world at large. It seems reasonable that this would matter more than any yield-based considerations at this stage.

This suggests that a rate cut will probably feed risk-on momentum, amplifying support for higher-yielding currencies while the safe-haven US Dollar follows the Yen downward. OIS-implied policy bets suggest traders have priced in a mere 20 percent chance of a cut, so follow-through seems probable if Mark Carney and company opt to pull the trigger. Sterling may also strengthen further. Alternatively, a status quo result may trigger renewed risk aversion.

Where are FX markets going in the third quarter? See our forecasts here.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUN)

0.5%

-

0.5%

22:00

USD

Fed's Harker Speaks in Philadelphia

-

-

-

22:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (JUN)

57.7

-

57.2

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (JUN)

16%

10%

19%

01:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUL)

3.7%

-

3.5%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (JUL)

118.2

-

118.9

01:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (JUL)

-0.6%

-

2.3%

01:30

AUD

Employment Change (JUN)

7.9k

10.0k

19.2k

01:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (JUN)

5.8%

5.8%

5.7%

01:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (JUN)

38.4k

-

2.5k

01:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (JUN)

-30.6k

-

16.6k

01:30

AUD

Participation Rate (JUN)

64.9%

64.8%

64.8%

01:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (JUN)

3.1%

-

-1.0%

01:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUN)

2.1%

-

1.8%

03:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN)

67.4%

-

68.5%

04:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN)

-12.9%

-

-14.1%

06:15

AUD

RBA's Ellis in Panel Participation in Sydney

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JUN)

0.1% (A)

0.4%

Low

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JUN)

-1.0% (A)

-1.2%

Low

11:00

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate (JUL 14)

0.25%

0.50%

High

11:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUL)

£375b

£375b

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0928

1.1006

1.1048

1.1084

1.1126

1.1162

1.1240

GBP/USD

1.2798

1.3002

1.3075

1.3206

1.3279

1.3410

1.3614

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.