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British Pound Soars as Polls Show Support for "Brexit" Ebbing

British Pound Soars as Polls Show Support for "Brexit" Ebbing

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound, Euro rise as polls show support for “Brexit” ebbing
  • Yen falls, commodity Dollars rise as market-wide risk appetite firms
  • European, US stock index futures hint risk-on trade set to continue

The British Poundsoared at the start of the week and theEurofollowed upward after new polling data released over the weekend showed ebbing support for “Brexit” at this week’s UK EU membership referendum. Survation reported a 45 to 42 preference for a “Remain” vote while an analogous poll from YouGov gave the status quo a 44 to 43 percent lead.

The outcomes likewise bolstered risk appetite. The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracked stocks upward while the anti-risk Japanese Yen plunged. The likewise haven-linked US Dollar is also under pressure. Gold prices and US 10-year Treasury futures likewise swooned as capital flowed away from safety-seeking assets.

Looking ahead, the absence of high-profile event means sentiment trends are likely to remain at the forefront. Furthermore, it suggests there are relatively few stumbling blocks in the way to break existing momentum. Indeed, European and US index futures are pointing sharply higher, hinting that the risk-on mood is poised to carry forward.

Identify short-term FX trading patterns with the GSI indicator!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

Westpac Consumer Confidence (2Q)

106.0

-

109.6

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (MAY)

56.9

-

57.8

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (JUN)

0.8%

-

0.4%

23:01

GBP

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (JUN)

5.5%

-

7.8%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance (MAY)

-¥40.7b

¥70.0b

¥823.2b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (MAY)

¥269.8b

¥113.4b

¥397.0b

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (MAY)

-11.3%

-10.0%

-10.1%

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (MAY)

-13.8%

-13.8%

-23.3%

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

-

-3.8%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

-

-1.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

0.1%

Low

6:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (MAY)

-2.9%

-3.1%

Low

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)

-

0.9%

Low

8:00

CHF

Total Sight Deposits

-

493.8b

Low

8:00

CHF

Domestic Sight Deposits

-

415.6b

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (APR)

-

-0.9%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (APR)

-

-0.5%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1119

1.1192

1.1235

1.1265

1.1308

1.1338

1.1411

GBPUSD

1.3939

1.4127

1.4243

1.4315

1.4431

1.4503

1.4691

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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