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Australian Dollar Pullback May Continue as Risk Appetite Cools

Australian Dollar Pullback May Continue as Risk Appetite Cools

2016-06-10 03:24:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar underperforms amid risk aversion in overnight trade
  • Euro, US Dollar unlikely to find direction in CPI and UofM reports
  • Sentiment trends to remain in focus, futures hint at risk-off mood

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, with the sentiment-sensitive currency falling alongside share prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index fell for a second consecutive day in a move that may reflect pre-positioning ahead of next week’s event risk.

The regional benchmark hit a two-month high mid-week. The absence of high-profile items on the docket may have inspired a round of precautionary profit-taking as investors rebalance exposure toward a more risk-neutral setting ahead of next week’s news flow, headlined by the FOMC policy announcement.

Looking ahead, the final revision of May’s German CPI figures seems unlikely to generate a significant response from the Euro considering the outcome’s limited implications for near-term ECB policy trends. A downtick on June’s University of Michigan gauge of US consumer confidence may likewise pass with little fanfare, with traders probably unwilling to commit to a directional bias on the US Dollar for now.

This leaves sentiment trends at the forefront. European and US stock index futures are pointing cautiously lower, hinting the risk-off bias may carry through in the final hours of the trading week. “Brexit”-related headline risk remains a wildcard as the fateful referendum looms ever-closer.

Track short-term trading patterns for FX, commodities and stock indexes with the GSI Indicator!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (MAY)

-0.3%

0.5%

0.8%

22:45

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (MAY)

-0.6%

-

1.3%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.2%

0.1%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (MAY)

-4.2%

-4.2%

-4.2%

04:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (APR)

0.6%

-0.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

-

0.3%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

-

-2.7%

Low

06:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (MAY F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (MAY F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

07:00

EUR

ECB's Weidmann Speaks in Eltville am Rhine

-

-

Low

08:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (MoM) (APR)

1.4%

-3.6%

Low

08:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (YoY) (APR)

-4.8%

-4.5%

Low

08:30

GBP

BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths (MAY)

-

1.8%

Low

12:15

EUR

ECB's Constancio, Lane Speak

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1126

1.1236

1.1276

1.1346

1.1386

1.1456

1.1566

GBP/USD

1.4317

1.4397

1.4428

1.4477

1.4508

1.4557

1.4637

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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