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Pound Gains After Latest Brexit Poll, US Dollar Eyeing PCE Data

Pound Gains After Latest Brexit Poll, US Dollar Eyeing PCE Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar outperforms as news-flow undercuts RBA easing chances
  • British Pound gains as latest polling results weigh against “Brexit” worries
  • US Dollar may return on the offensive if PCE data boosts Fed rate hike bets

A recovery in risk appetite bolstered the sentiment-linked commodity-bloc currencies in overnight trade, with the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars tracking regional share prices and S&P 500 futures upward. The Aussie outperformed after supportive economic data weighed against RBA rate cut speculation.

Most notably, building approvals unexpectedly posted the first year-on-year gain in six months. Traders may have interpreted the reading as indicative of bets on buoyant housing demand, meaning the central bank’s macro-prudential efforts to cool the real estate space are falling short. In turn, this may limit scope for easing in the near term. Indeed, the Aussie rallied alongside front-end bond yields.

The British Pound likewise pushed higher in a move that may reflect easing “Brexit” fears after an ORB poll showed 51 to 46 percent lead for respondents favoring the UK remaining in the European Union, with just 3 percent undecided. The US Dollar traded lower as 2-year T-bond futures rose, implying a pullback in front-end yields that may point to a moderation in Fed rate hike bets.

Looking ahead, May’s flash Eurozone CPI report headlines the data docket in European hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print -0.1 percent, marking the fourth consecutive month in negative territory. The outcome seems unlikely to trigger a strong response from the Euro as the ECB remains locked in wait-and-see mode, monitoring progress on existing stimulus efforts.

April’s US PCE inflation gauge – the Fed’s favored price growth indicator – captures the spotlight later in the day. The core year-on-year rate is forecast to register at 1.6 percent, unchanged from the prior month. US economic data has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks. This opens the door for an upside surprise that boosts June rate hike chances and sends the greenback upward.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (APR)

6.6%

-

-9.7%

23:01

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (MAY)

32

-

38

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (MAY 29)

113.2

-

115.7

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (APR)

3.2%

3.2%

3.2%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (APR)

1.34

1.30

1.30

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (APR)

-0.4%

-1.3%

-5.3%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR P)

0.3%

-1.5%

3.8%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR P)

-3.5%

-5.0%

0.2%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (MAY)

30.4

-

32.1

01:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (MAY)

11.3

-

6.2

01:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (1Q)

1.1

0.7

0.0

01:30

AUD

BoP Current Account Balance (1Q)

-20.8b

-19.5b

-22.6b

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (APR)

3.0%

-3.0%

2.9%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (APR)

0.7%

-6.7%

-5.4%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (APR)

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (APR)

6.7%

6.5%

6.4%

03:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

-

7.8%

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (APR)

-

1.2%

05:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (MAY)

47.5

47.8

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (APR)

4.1%

8.4%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (APR)

0.950m

0.993m

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (APR)

-

19.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.9%

-1.4%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

1.7%

0.7%

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (MAY)

-5k

-16k

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (MAY)

6.2%

6.2%

Medium

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (APR)

5.0%

5.0%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (APR)

10.2%

10.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY)

-0.1%

-0.2%

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (MAY A)

0.8%

0.7%

High

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP WDA (QoQ) (1Q F)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italian GDP WDA (YoY) (1Q F)

1.0%

1.0%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1033

1.1080

1.1109

1.1127

1.1156

1.1174

1.1221

GBP/USD

1.4515

1.4569

1.4605

1.4623

1.4659

1.4677

1.4731

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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