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British Pound May Rise as BOE Officials Defend Brexit Outlook

British Pound May Rise as BOE Officials Defend Brexit Outlook

2016-05-24 04:08:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound gains before contentious “Brexit”-themed BOE testimony
  • New Zealand Dollar, bond yields decline on RBNZ rate cut speculation
  • Aussie Dollar swoons as RBA Governor Stevens defends inflation target

The British Pound outperformed in overnight trade, rising against all of its top counterparts. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of upcoming Parliamentary testimony from key Bank of England officials. Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent as well as MPC members Marin Weale and Gertjan Vlieghe will be questioned about the central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report before the Treasury Select Committee.

Needless to say, policymakers’ harsh assessment of what may happen in the event that voters opt for “Brexit”in a referendum to be held on June 23 – taking the UK out of the EU – is likely to be in focus. Eurosceptic MPs will almost certainly accuse the central bank of partisan meddling in political matters. MPs backing the government’s position favoring the status quo will probably try to set up opportunities for Carney and company to play up doom and gloom Brexit scenarios.

On balance, the BOE position is already well-known. The central bank has shrewdly opted against wading into the hypothetical debate about the costs and benefits of EU membership over the long term. Instead, policymakers have focused on the mostly negative growth and market stability implications of triggering an unprecedented series of tectonic changes to UK economic structure. Traders may interpret their ability to toe this line convincingly as playing into the hands of the “Remain” campaign, sending Sterling higher.

The New Zealand Dollar proved weakest among the majors in Asian hours. The currency fell alongside the island nation’s front-end bond yields, hinting at swelling RBNZ rate cut speculation as the catalyst behind the decline. Indeed, the priced-in probability of a 25bps cut at next month’s policy meeting (as implied in OIS rates) rose to 22 percent from 16 percent yesterday. The Japanese Yen corrected gently lower having soared against the majors in the preceding 24 hours.

The Australian Dollar plunged as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens appeared to imply that further easing is on the horizon. Stevens defended the existing 2-3 percent inflation target as the center-piece of the central bank’s policy and said price growth is “too low”. The markets may have interpreted commitment to the current framework as paving the way for rate cuts given economists’ forecasts for Australian inflation to average 1.6 percent this year.

Retail traders are net long GBP/USD. Find out what this could mean for the trend going forward!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (MAY 22)

115.7

-

115.1

22:30

USD

Fed's Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook

-

-

-

03:05

AUD

RBA's Stevens Speaks in Sydney

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

CHF

Trade Balance (APR)

-

2.16b

Medium

06:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (APR)

-

-1.1%

Medium

06:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (APR)

-

9.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Private Consumption (QoQ) (1Q)

0.6%

0.3%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Government Spending (QoQ) (1Q)

0.8%

1.0%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Capital Investment (QoQ) (1Q)

1.4%

1.5%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Construction Investment (QoQ) (1Q)

1.5%

2.2%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (1Q)

0.9%

0.8%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Exports (QoQ) (1Q)

0.5%

-0.6%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Imports (QoQ) (1Q)

1.0%

0.5%

Low

06:00

EUR

German GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German GDP WDA (YoY) (1Q F)

1.6%

1.6%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German GDP NSA (YoY) (1Q F)

1.3%

1.3%

Medium

07:00

EUR

ECB's Praet Speaks at NABE/OECD Symposium

-

-

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (APR)

-

16.6b

Low

08:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (APR)

-

18.8b

Low

08:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (APR)

5.8b

4.2b

Low

08:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (APR)

6.4b

4.8b

Low

09:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Current Situation (MAY)

49.0

47.7

Medium

09:00

EUR

German ZEW Survey Expectations (MAY)

12.0

11.2

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations (MAY)

-

21.5

Medium

09:00

GBP

BOE Officials Appear in Parliament Re: QIR

-

-

High

09:10

EUR

ECB’s Liikanen Speaks in Helsinki

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Retailing Reported Sales (MAY)

8

-13

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales (MAY)

13

13

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.4280

1.4386

1.4435

1.4492

1.4541

1.4598

1.4704

GBP/USD

1.2989

1.3064

1.3103

1.3139

1.3178

1.3214

1.3289

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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