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Currency Markets Look to US Data, Q1 Earnings for Direction Cues

Currency Markets Look to US Data, Q1 Earnings for Direction Cues

2016-04-20 05:41:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pond may look past UK jobless claims figures and BOE comments
  • US Dollar may see outsized gains if Existing Home Sales data proves rosy
  • Influence of sentiment trends remains important on Q1 earnings releases

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. UK jobless claims figures and comments from Bank of England MPC member Ian McCafferty seem unlikely to deliver significant volatility for the British Pound considering their limited implications for near-term policy prospects. Similarly, scheduled remarks from ECB President Draghi may pass with little fanfare as traders opt against directional commitment until after the rate decision due later in the week.

Later in the day, US Existing Home Sales numbers will enter the spotlight. Priced-in Fed policy bets implied in futures and OIS rates have remained conspicuously stable even as economic news-flow has deteriorated relative to expectations over the past week. If this speaks to the markets having reached something of a floor in the tightening outlook, upbeat results may drive an outsized hawkish shift in perceptions and boost the US Dollar while a soft print passes with little fanfare.

Risk sentiment trends remain an important input as the first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season continues. Results from 25 companies in the S&P 500 including consumer powerhouses Coca Cola and Yum Brands as well as important financial names US Bancorp and American Express are on tap. Thus far, sales and overall earnings have topped estimates by 0.09 and 4.63 percent respectively on average, with 58 firms in the benchmark index having announced.

The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed while the anti-risk Japanese Yen advanced in overnight trade. The moves appeared corrective after yesterday’s swell in risk appetite produced the inverse dynamic.

Where are the financial markets heading in the second quarter?See our forecasts here!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance (MAR)

¥755.0b

¥834.6b

¥242.2b

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (MAR)

¥276.5b

¥450.0b

¥150.4b

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (MAR)

-6.8%

-7.0%

-4.0%

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (MAR)

-14.9%

-16.6%

-14.2%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAR)

-0.12%

-

-0.23%

1:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (MAR)

-1.2%

-

-1.2%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)

-

-21.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German PPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

-0.5%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German PPI (YoY) (MAR)

-2.9%

-3.0%

Medium

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-

1.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (MAR)

2.1%

2.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (MAR)

-10.0k

-18.0k

Medium

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (FEB)

2.3%

2.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (FEB)

2.1%

2.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) (FEB)

5.1%

5.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (FEB)

60k

116k

Low

9:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey Expectations (APR)

-

2.5

Low

10:00

EUR

ECB's Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Low

13:00

GBP

BOE's McCafferty Speaks in London

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.1187

1.1268

1.1313

1.1349

1.1394

1.1430

1.1511

GBP/USD

1.4067

1.4215

1.4306

1.4363

1.4454

1.4511

1.4659

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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