News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
Euro, Yen and Aussie Dollar May See Sharp Moves on ECB Outcome

Euro, Yen and Aussie Dollar May See Sharp Moves on ECB Outcome

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • All eyes on ECB as markets price in at least 10bps reduction in deposit rate
  • Euro likely to rise if QE asset purchase pace remains at €60 billion/month
  • Risk appetite to sour if ECB underwhelms, hurting Aussie and boosting Yen

All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy announcement in European trading hours. The markets are primed for stimulus expansion, but the way in which it is delivered can generate vastly different outcomes for the Euro and the broader asset universe at large.

The MSCI World Stock Index – a proxy for global risk appetite trends – has closely tracked global liquidity trends. This makes for an environment where actions judged as dovish by the world’s top central banks trigger “risk-on” dynamics that benefit equities and high-yielding currencies alike. Needless to say, hawkish outcomes have the opposite effect.

Extending the existing €60 billion/month QE effort and pushing deposit rates deeper into negative territory underwhelmed investors in December. The move brought policy rates in line with a drop in borrowing costs already priced in by investors while offering no up-front boost to asset purchases. The Euro raced sharply higher and stocks fell as a result.

This time around, traders are front-running a deposit rate cut once again. Accounting for the spread between the EONIA benchmark for EUR-based overnight borrowing costs and the ECB deposit rate, markets envision at least a 10 basis point reduction. If the ECB does not meaningfully exceed their expectations and offer a tangible boost to the size of QE asset purchases, another disappointment is likely.

Besides sending the Euro higher, such a result will probably hurt risk appetite. This may see sentiment-geared FX like the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars trade lower alongside share prices while the anti-risk Japanese Yen advances. On the other hand, a bold dovish move will likely deliver the opposite results.

Do DailyFX analysts expect the Euro to rise or fall this year? See our 2016 forecast to find out!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

20:00

NZD

RBNZ Official Cash Rate

2.25%

2.50%

2.50%

20:05

NZD

RBNZ’s Wheeler Holds News Conference

-

-

-

23:50

JPY

PPI MoM (FEB)

-0.2%

-0.3%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

PPI YoY (FEB)

-3.4%

-3.4%

-3.2%

00:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)

3.4%

-

3.6%

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (FEB)

50.0%

50.0%

48.0%

01:30

CNY

CPI YoY (FEB)

2.3%

1.8%

1.8%

01:30

CNY

PPI YoY (FEB)

-4.9%

-4.9%

-5.3%

02:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg. Office Vacancies (FEB)

4.04

-

4.01

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (JAN)

17.0B

19.0B

Low

07:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (JAN)

17.0B

25.6B

Low

07:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (JAN)

0.8%

-1.4%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (JAN)

0.8%

-1.6%

Low

07:00

EUR

German Labor Costs (YoY) (4Q)

-

2.4%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Labor Costs (QoQ) (4Q)

-

0.0%

Medium

12:45

EUR

ECB Main Refinancing Rate

0.05%

0.05%

High

12:45

EUR

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

-0.40%

-0.30%

High

12:45

EUR

ECB Marginal Lending Facility

0.30%

0.30%

High

13:30

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Holds Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0815

1.0904

1.0952

1.0993

1.1041

1.1082

1.1171

GBP/USD

1.4086

1.4149

1.4183

1.4212

1.4246

1.4275

1.4338

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES