We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Crypto update: $BTC -2% $BCH -3% $LTC -2.7% $XRP -2.9% $ETH -2%
  • President Trump: We're doing very well on #USMCA, hearing from unions that it is looking very good $USDCAD $USDMXN
  • US Dollar Returns to Resistance Ahead of CPI, FOMC https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/drivers_of_price_action/2019/12/09/us-dollar-holds-key-resistance-ahead-of-cpi-fomc-usd-price-chart-js56.html https://t.co/tcJR97ZjxZ
  • Poll: Volatility levels are exceptionally low across the financial system and activity is mean reverting. Also worth noting volatility and risk assets (like the Dow) move inversely to each other. When do you think volatility will 'normalize' (likely explode, then settle higher)?
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.13% Oil - US Crude: 0.01% Gold: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/YiXXwwfBML
  • Senate Finance Committee Chairman Grassley spoke with USTR's Lighthizer on Monday about #USMCA and is hopeful a deal announcement can come soon $USDCAD $USDMXN
  • The #Dow Jones has rallied more than 25% in the year-to-date, easily recouping losses from last winter. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/iwTMNbWq7S https://t.co/PWFYVH90i9
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.95%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XmQ5X9mG3U
  • I'm keeping this visual marker of the US-China December 15 deadline for the former increasing the tariff list on the latter if no deal is struck. $USDCNH https://t.co/ryK4BeXyCI
  • My fears of that impending December 15th tariff escalation are not soothed... https://t.co/3RLJx3mWDz
US Dollar May Find Lifeline as Jobs Data Revives Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar May Find Lifeline as Jobs Data Revives Rate Hike Bets

2016-02-05 06:55:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Conflicting cues make for clouded outlook before January US jobs report
  • Skewed positioning hints US Dollar to see outsized response on upbeat print
  • New Zealand Dollar down with bond yields as RBNZ outlook deteriorates

All eyes are on January’s US Employment data. The economy is expected to have added 190k jobs, marking the weakest print in four months. Wage inflation – a major input for Fed policy bets – is also seen slowing. Average hourly earnings growth is forecast to register at 2.2 percent year-on-year, down from a near-six year high of 2.5 percent in the prior month.

Leading data is sending conflicting signals. The ISM survey points to sharp deterioration in manufacturing- and service-sector job creation. The analogous Markit PMI report agrees on a dip in the pace of factory-sector hiring but reckons that payrolls on the services side grew at the fastest pace since September 2015. Initial jobless claims have been trending higher since late October but that certainly did not prevent the emergence of last month’s overwhelmingly supportive payrolls print.

Whilethis makes for a clouded landscape, market positioning does hint at likely trade dynamics. Traders have continued to downgrade Fed rate hike expectations ahead of the jobs report. Fed Funds futures now point to a consensus view favoring no further tightening in 2016.

This seems to make markets asymmetrically sensitive to a better-than-expected outcome that clashes with fading rate hike bets versus the alternative. The US Dollar is likely to trade broadly higher in such a scenario.The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars may bear the brunt of the move as the impact of shifting policy views is amplified by risk aversion amid dimming hopes for greater accommodation.

The Kiwi underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency’s slump tracked a drop in the island nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yields, hinting that deterioration in the RBNZ monetary policy outlook may have been the catalyst at work.

A singular trigger for the dovish shift in investors’ views is not readily apparent however. Corrective repositioning may have amplified selling pressure considering the Kiwi led the other majors in their aggressive offensive against the greenback over the past 48 hours, adding over 3 percent.

Are US Dollar moves matching DailyFX analysts’ expectations? Check out our quarterly forecast!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (JAN)

46.3

-

46.8

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (JAN)

1248.1B

-

1233.2B

00:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)

0.0%

0.4%

0.4%

00:30

AUD

Retail Sales ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

0.9%

0.5%

00:30

AUD

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

-

-

-

05:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (DEC P)

102.0

102.7

103.5

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (DEC P)

111.2

111.0

111.9

05:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (JAN)

61.6B

-

67.4B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) (DEC)

-0.5%

1.5%

Medium

07:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (YoY) (DEC)

-1.4%

2.1%

Medium

08:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (JAN)

-

559.7B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0835

1.1004

1.1106

1.1173

1.1275

1.1342

1.1511

GBP/USD

1.4320

1.4458

1.4523

1.4596

1.4661

1.4734

1.4872

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.