News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/s4lZWdJoXV
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/jcwhcsUBEN https://t.co/tKrlrRZlZn
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/MGy9OTXpUI
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ph20zFv4qS https://t.co/v4g9ATf4rr
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/De69mTseZN
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/D7AeTM5OpH
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/9B4rJnzWuz https://t.co/ENF3xlkuyP
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/Gps2Xp32h9
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/hftCEho1lM
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/MzaIl7tPmZ
Euro Vulnerable to Deeper Losses on Draghi Comments, PMI Data

Euro Vulnerable to Deeper Losses on Draghi Comments, PMI Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Extend Decline on Dovish Draghi Comments, Soft PMI Data
  • Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise, Euro and Yen Decline as Risk Firms in Asia
  • Confirm Trend Direction and Spot Critical Reversals with DailyFX SSI

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars continued to push higher after scoring dramatic gains in the preceding 24 hours, rising alongside Asian stock prices as risk appetite continued to recover around the financial markets. The anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen traded lower, with the single currency underperforming in the aftermath of yesterday’s dovish ECB policy announcement (as expected).

Eurozone event risk remains in the spotlight through the end of the trading week. ECB President Mario Draghi is set to speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Traders will look for the central bank chief to expound on yesterday’s dovish commentary, where he hinted that an expansion of stimulus measures may be unveiled as soon as March.

Most critically, investors will want to know if the ECB is prepared to deliver more accommodation in the immediate term. December’s move to extend the length of the QE program added to the sum total of asset purchases but didn’t change the size of monthly outlays. Meanwhile, the shallow cut of the deposit rate fell in line with what investors had already priced prior to the policy meeting. On balance, this meant that present-day stimulus provision was left static, leaving investors disappointed.

On balance, this means that for any further policy support to be seen as adequately potent by investors, the ECB will have to actually increase the amount of easing on offer now versus in the future. Comments hinting at such a possibility from Mr Draghi are likely to weigh on the Euro and may amplify the recovery in risk appetite. Rhetoric pointing to another modest offering as the next policy step stands to yield the opposite results.

The preliminary set of January’s Eurozone PMI figures is likewise on tap. The region-wide composite measure is expected to show that manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth slowed for the first in four months in December. Needless to say, sagging economic growth compounds downward pressure on inflation and makes it harder for the ECB to deliver on its mandate, amplifying the need for a more aggressive stimulus effort. As such, a soft result will probably hurt the single currency, whereas an upside surprise may help cap recent losses.

What is the most common mistake FX traders make?Find out here.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

01:45

CNY

MNI Business Indicator (JAN)

52.3

-

52.7

02:00

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (JAN P)

52.4

52.8

52.6

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:45

EUR

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks in Davos

-

-

High

08:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (JAN P)

51.3

51.4

Low

08:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (JAN P)

50.1

49.8

Low

08:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (JAN P)

50.3

50.1

Low

08:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (JAN P)

53.0

53.2

Medium

08:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (JAN P)

55.5

56.0

Medium

08:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (JAN P)

55.1

55.5

Medium

09:00

EUR

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

-

-

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (JAN P)

53.0

53.2

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (JAN P)

54.2

54.2

Medium

09:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (JAN P)

54.1

54.3

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

1.7%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (DEC)

3.5%

3.9%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

1.7%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (DEC)

4.4%

5.0%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (DEC)

-

5.4B

Low

09:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (DEC)

-

7.7B

Low

09:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (DEC)

10.0B

13.6B

Low

09:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (DEC)

10.5B

14.2B

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro Area 3Q Government Debt

-

-

Low

12:00

GBP

BOE's Cunliffe Speaks at Bruegel in Brussels

-

-

Low

12:00

EUR

ECB’s Coeure Speaks in Davos

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0572

1.0715

1.0794

1.0858

1.0937

1.1001

1.1144

GBP/USD

1.3845

1.4014

1.4118

1.4183

1.4287

1.4352

1.4521

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES