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US Dollar Retreats as Post-FOMC Correction Continues

US Dollar Retreats as Post-FOMC Correction Continues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Drops Alongside US Treasury Yields Amid Post-FOMC Correction
  • Thin Liquidity Conditions Create Knee-Jerk Volatility Risk in Holiday Trade
  • Markets Unlikely to Find Direction in US Jobless Claims, Japan CPI Releases

The US Dollar resumed its post-FOMC downward correction in overnight trade after brief respite in yesterday’s session, falling to the lowest level in a week against an average of its top counterparts. The move played out alongside a drop in front-end US Treasury yields, hinting profit-taking on the “Fed tightening” theme into the year-end is the likely catalyst driving price action.

Looking ahead, the Christmas holiday will see most top financial markets shuddered through next week. Indeed, trading volumes for FX futures contracts tracking the major currencies have been dropping since mid-month, hinting at larger market-wide dynamics. This is likely to make for near-standstill in the final 48 hours of the trading week.

It ought to be noted however that the drop in participation may amplify knee-jerk volatility in the event that unexpected headline risk catches markets unprepared. In fact, last week’s BOJ rate decision was a case in point. With that in mind, traders would be wise to tread carefully despite apparent calm.

A handful of economic data releases will cross the wires into the week-end, with weekly US jobless claims figures as well as Japan’s labor market and inflation reports are on tap. Both ought to pass with little fanfare. Claims numbers are unlikely to single-handedly change anything about investors’ Fed policy outlook. Meanwhile, the BOJ’s reluctance to actually expand stimulus despite this month’s tinkering with the policy mix undermines CPI figures’ market-moving potential.

Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in the Major Currencies with DailyFX SSI

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:00

AUD

Conf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (OCT)

-0.1%

-

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

BOJ Minutes for November Meeting

-

-

-

04:00

JPY

BOJ’s Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

09:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (NOV)

46000

45437

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0739

1.0826

1.0869

1.0913

1.0956

1.1000

1.1087

GBP/USD

1.4702

1.4783

1.4827

1.4864

1.4908

1.4945

1.5026

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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