News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/Xi9QU3ADPF
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/cQwbeZ6Feq
  • #Oil prices saw a reprieve to the recent selling pressure but remain at risk while below downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the #WTI technical chart. Get your #commodities update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/CcXsF3JCMH https://t.co/RUmS1cX52v
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/boEI8RuQdC
  • The growth-linked New Zealand Dollar may rise on the upcoming #RBNZ rate decision following rosy economic data. However, downside potential in the S&P 500 could offset $NZDUSD gains. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/LfCe6C6G3P https://t.co/kUeBxxeaEf
  • It was a quiet week in Aussie as $AUDUSD put in its second consecutive week of indecision. But taking a more granular look highlights the potential for a reversal scenario. Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/PPK20nubAf https://t.co/0nfmRRFNnz
  • The S&P 500 pushed the market's comfort with a head-and-shoulders pattern through Friday's close. What should we look for in technical patterns, overlapping fundamental tides and speculative positioning for the likes of $EURUSD next week? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/09/19/EURUSD-Pressure-Building-while-Anxious-Traders-Weigh-Did-SP-500-Break.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/lgVJVwi8th
  • Sterling remains trapped by overarching fundamentals drivers and both $GBPUSD and $EURGBP are going to have to wait until the Brexit dust settles. Get your #currencies update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/vF1K1cy0nd https://t.co/NSA7qiQihc
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/d9EmTOHyTv
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true.Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/xqbUxwWgTZ
US Dollar, Top Currencies Shift Focus to Fed Hike Implementation

US Dollar, Top Currencies Shift Focus to Fed Hike Implementation

2015-12-17 03:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Underperform as US Dollar Gains After Fed Rate Hike
  • In-Line FOMC Outcome Hints Near-Term USD Advance May Prove Fleeting
  • Currency Markets Set to Shift Focus to Fed Tightening Implementation Effort

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed relative to their G10 counterparts as the US Dollar pushed broadly higher following the FOMC monetary policy announcement in overnight trade. Chair Yellen and company issued the first post-QE interest rate hike and signaled that subsequent tightening will be cautious and shallow.

The outcome registered broadly in line with consensus forecasts. Indeed, the breakout of risk aversion would have probably materialized if investors judged the Fed’s rhetoric as hawkish. This was clearly not the case. Indeed, Asian bourses are mostly following Wall Street upward. On balance, this means the greenback’s overnight advance may represent a surface-level reaction that ultimately struggles for follow-through, at least in the near term.

Looking ahead, a relatively quiet economic calendar on the European front will see investors focused on implementation of the Fed’s new policy regime. The Fed Funds rate (FFR) will need to be brought upward from 15bps, the Wednesday close, and into the new 25-50bps target range.

To this effect, the Fed raised the interest rate on reserves to 50bps and authorized the Open Markets Desk to conduct effectively unlimited reverse repo operations at 25bps, with the only constraint being the supply of Treasury securities that the Fed’s traders have on hand. Markets will monitor the central bank’s ability to deliver tightening through this mechanism, tracking its impact on borrowing costs around the financial markets.

If the removal of accommodation proves particularly abrupt, a latent risk-averse response to the Fed’s announcement may yet materialize. That would bode ill for the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars while boosting the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen. Alternatively, the opposite dynamic may materialize if the Fed struggles to bring FFR upward as intended.

Gauge Trends and Spot Reversals in the Major Currencies with DailyFX SSI

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

GDP SA (QoQ) (3Q)

0.9%

0.8%

0.3%

21:45

NZD

GDP (YoY) (3Q)

2.3%

2.3%

2.4%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance (¥) (NOV)

-379.7B

-449.7B

108.3B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (¥) (NOV)

-3.3B

-206.7B

-173.0B

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (NOV)

-3.3%

-1.6%

-2.2%

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (NOV)

-10.2%

-7.3%

-13.4%

01:57

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (NOV)

-517M

-

-579M

01:57

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (NOV)

485M

-

516M

01:58

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (NOV)

39M

-

83M

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:45

CHF

SECO December 2015 Economic Forecasts

-

-

Low

08:00

CHF

KOF Institute Winter Economic Forecast

-

-

Low

09:00

EUR

German IFO Business Climate (DEC)

109.0

109.0

Medium

09:00

EUR

German IFO Current Assessment (DEC)

113.4

113.4

Medium

09:00

EUR

German IFO Expectations (DEC)

105.0

104.7

Medium

09:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

-

-

Low

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (NOV)

0.5%

-0.9%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (NOV)

2.2%

3.0%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (MoM) (NOV)

0.6%

-0.6%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel (YoY) (NOV)

3.0%

3.8%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (OCT)

-

-0.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (OCT)

-

1.8%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Labour Costs (YoY) (3Q)

-

1.6%

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (DEC)

-10

-11

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (DEC)

-

-2

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EUR/USD

1.0691

1.0814

1.0863

1.0937

1.0986

1.106

1.1183

GBP/USD

1.4745

1.4883

1.4944

1.5021

1.5082

1.5159

1.5297

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES