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Pound May Rise if Wage Inflation Pickup Boosts BOE Rate Hike Bets

Pound May Rise if Wage Inflation Pickup Boosts BOE Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Pound May Rise if Wage Inflation Pickup Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Outlook
  • More BOE, ECB Commentary in Focus as Traders Ponder Policy Trends
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

UK Jobless Claims figures headline the economic data docket in European trading hours. An increase of 1.4k is expected, marking a narrow improvement from the 4.6k rise in the prior month. The headline figure carries relatively limited implications for BOE policy bets however and traders will likely Average Earnings numbers far more interesting.

The pace of wage inflation is expected to rise to 3.2 percent, marking the third consecutive acceleration. A higher-than-expected outcome may hint that building domestic price pressures will be able to overcome external disinflationary forces from soft oil prices and a stronger currency. That could bolster rate hike expectations, sending the British Pound higher. A soft result could be seen as delaying tightening and weigh on the UK unit.

Meanwhile, another busy round central bank commentary will see investors combing through the rhetoric for near-term policy clues. Remarks from BOE Governor Mark Carney along with Deputy Governors Bailey, Shafik and Cunliffe may help shape tightening timeline expectations. Meanwhile, comments from ECB President Mario Draghi as well as policymakers Constancio and Hansson may help inform bets on possible routes for stimulus expansion at next month’s meeting.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (NOV)

101.7

-

97.8

23:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (NOV)

3.9%

-

4.2%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (OCT)

3.6%

3.8%

3.8%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT)

2.9%

3.1%

3.1%

05:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

11.0%

10.9%

10.9%

05:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (OCT)

10.6%

10.6%

10.5%

05:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT)

5.6%

5.8%

5.7%

05:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (OCT)

6.1%

6.2%

6.2%

05:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (OCT)

10.2%

10.2%

10.3%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT P)

-23.1%

-

-19.1%

06:00

CNY

Bloomberg Monthly GDP Estimate (YoY) (OCT)

6.57%

-

6.55%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (OCT)

2.3%

2.3%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (OCT)

1.4k

4.6k

High

09:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (SEP)

3.2%

3.0%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (SEP)

2.6%

2.8%

Medium

09:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths (SEP)

5.4%

5.4%

Medium

09:30

GBP

Employment Change (3M/3M) (SEP)

120k

140k

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0543

1.0632

1.0678

1.0721

1.0767

1.0810

1.0899

GBPUSD

1.5011

1.5065

1.5092

1.5119

1.5146

1.5173

1.5227

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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