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US Dollar Looks to CPI Data for a Lifeline as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade

US Dollar Looks to CPI Data for a Lifeline as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Looking to CPI Data for a Lifeline as Fed Rate Hike Bets Fizzle
  • Commodity Dollars Drop, Yen Gains as Risk Appetite Firms in Asian Trade
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic calendar in Europe is likely to keep speculation about the trajectory of Fed policy in focus as the US CPI report comes across the wires. The core year-on-year growth rate is expected to print at 1.8 percent in September, unchanged from the prior month.

Fed funds futures show traders now envision liftoff in April 2016 having favored March only yesterday. The dovish shift came after US PPI figures showed core wholesale inflation unexpectedly slowed in September while the Fed Beige Book survey said prices remain “fairly stable” and wage growth is “mostly subdued”.

Fed officials seem reasonably content with progress on the labor market, putting tepid inflation in focus as the reason du jour for delaying normalization. With that in mind, it seems hardly surprising that signs of lackluster price growth weigh on priced-in tightening bets.

Another soft result on the CPI release may pressure the US Dollar further and boost risk appetite. Follow-through may be limited however considering the dovish shift in expectations that has already transpired over the past 24 hours. On the other hand, an upside surprise may catch investors wrong-footed, triggering a reversal of the greenback’s latest slump moves.

The sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed while the safety-linked Japanese Yen traded broadly lower as risk appetite firmed in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose over 1 percent. Optimism likely reflected ebbing fears of an on-coming Fed interest rate hike following yesterday’s news-flow.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (SEP)

55.4

-

55.1

00:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (OCT)

114.9

-

110.8

00:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (OCT)

3.7%

-

0.9%

00:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (OCT)

3.5%

-

3.2%

00:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (SEP)

5.5%

-

-1.7%

00:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (SEP)

7.7%

-

2.9%

00:30

AUD

Employment Change (SEP)

-5.1K

9.6K

18.1K

00:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (SEP)

6.2%

6.2%

6.2%

00:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (SEP)

-13.9K

-

11.0K

00:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (SEP)

8.9K

-

7.1K

00:30

AUD

Participation Rate (SEP)

64.9%

65.0%

65.0%

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (SEP)

-785M

-

-404M

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (SEP)

712M

-

336M

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (SEP)

89M

-

85M

04:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-27.2%

-

23.7%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG F)

-1.2%

-

-0.5%

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG F)

-0.4%

-

0.2%

04:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (AUG)

-0.9%

-

-0.2%

04:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (AUG)

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

No Data

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1017

1.1101

1.1154

1.1185

1.1238

1.1269

1.1353

GBPUSD

1.5264

1.5319

1.5344

1.5374

1.5399

1.5429

1.5484

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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