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Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets

Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets
  • US ISM May Set Precedent for Risk Trends’ Response to Shifting Fed Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the calendar in European trading hours. The gauge is expected to tick lower to 51.3 in September, pointing to the slowest pace of factory-sector activity growth since April 2013. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may undercut BOE rate hike expectations, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the US ISM Manufacturing report will come into the spotlight. Economists predict slowdown here as well, with the third consecutive month of deceleration seen yielding the most sluggish growth since May 2013. A soft print may undermine Fed tightening speculation, weighing on the US Dollar.

The likely implications for risk appetite are a bit more complex however. At various times in recent weeks, the prospect of a nearing Fed hike seemed to boost sentiment because of what such a move would say about the health of the US economy. At other times however, it spooked investors worried about the implications of a policy roadblock to US growth at a time when the Eurozone remains sluggish and China continues to slow. Seeing which narrative proves dominant may help establish a benchmark for Friday’s higher-impact US employment figures.

On the commentary front, scheduled remarks from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are in focus. Both policymakers have spoken in favor ofstarting stimulus withdrawal this year in recent days and seem likely to do the same this time. With that in mind, the threshold for a market-moving headline emerging out of either speechseems relatively high.

The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed while the anti-risk Euro and Japanese Yen came faced selling pressure in overnight trade as sentiment firmed. The move appeared to take its cues from an upbeat lead from Wall Street, where shares rose for the first time in five days. Upbeat manufacturing PMIs from Australian, Japan and China likewise helped.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (SEP)

12.6%

-

11.3%

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (SEP)

52.1

-

51.7

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Index (3Q)

12.0

13.0

15.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Mfg Outlook (3Q)

10.0

10.0

16.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index (3Q)

25.0

20.0

23.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q)

19.0

19.0

21.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q)

10.9%

8.7%

9.3%

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Index (3Q)

0.0

-2.0

0.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Mfg Outlook (3Q)

-2.0

-4.0

0.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Index (3Q)

3.0

1.0

4.0

23:50

JPY

Tankan Small Non-Mfg Outlook (3Q)

1.0

0.0

1.0

00:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (SEP)

0.9%

-

0.3%

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (SEP)

49.8

49.7

49.7

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (SEP)

53.4

-

53.4

01:30

AUD

Job vacancies (AUG)

2.7%

-

2.1%

01:35

JPY

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (SEP F)

51.0

-

50.9

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Mfg (SEP F)

47.2

47.0

47.0

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Composite (SEP)

48.0

-

48.8

01:45

CNY

Caixin China PMI Services (SEP)

50.5

-

51.5

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (SEP)

-3.0%

-

2.3%

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (SEP)

-

79.7

06:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (SEP)

-

-20.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:15

CHF

Retail Sales Real (YoY) (AUG)

-

-0.1%

Low

07:30

CHF

procure.ch Mfg PMI (SEP)

51.8

52.2

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (SEP)

53.4

53.8

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (SEP F)

50.4

50.4

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (SEP F)

52.5

52.5

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (SEP F)

52.0

52.0

Medium

08:00

CHF

KOF Institute Autumn Economic Forecast

-

-

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (SEP)

51.3

51.5

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0990

1.1094

1.1135

1.1198

1.1239

1.1302

1.1406

GBPUSD

1.4938

1.5044

1.5086

1.5150

1.5192

1.5256

1.5362

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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