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US Dollar May Rise as FOMC Minutes Boost September Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar May Rise as FOMC Minutes Boost September Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise as July FOMC Minutes Boost September Rate Hike Bets
  • Yen to Rise, Commodity FX Vulnerable if Fed Outlook Sparks Risk Aversion
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet day on the European economic data front will see investors looking ahead to July’s US CPI figures as well as the publication of minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print at 1.8 percent, unchanged from the prior month. However, US economic news-flow has increasingly tended to outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May, leaving the door open for an upside surprise.

Meanwhile, the account of the Fed’s July sit-down may foreshadow a rate hike in September. The conspicuous absence of dissent from hawkish FOMC members last month hints that withholding tightening may have been a tactical rather than a qualitative decision.

Analysts tracked by Bloomberg seem to favor “liftoff” in September while Fed Funds futures continue to price it in for October, meaning a move in July would have almost certainly triggered pandemonium. With that in mind, Fed officials may have acknowledged that the economy is ready for stimulus withdrawal but opted to wait for the sake of smoother normalization.

Clues to that effect may help cement September as the consensus time frame and force investors to re-price expectations baked into asset prices, boosting the US Dollar. It ma likewise weigh on risk appetite as traders consider the pivotal role of expansionary monetary policy in fueling the post-crisis recovery in financial markets, punishing sentiment-geared currencies like the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollarswhile offering a lift to the Japanese Yen. Needless to say, a stronger CPI print would only encourage this process.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.3%

-

-1.1%

22:45

NZD

PPI Output (QoQ) (2Q)

-0.2%

-

-0.9%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance (¥ ) (JUL)

-268.1B

-53.0B

-70.5B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (¥ ) (JUL)

-368.8B

-158.6B

-283.4B

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (JUL)

7.6

5.2

9.5

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (JUL)

-3.2

-8.2

-2.9

00:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

-

0.0%

01:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUL)

0.1%

-

-0.3%

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUN)

0.3%

0.4%

-0.5%

05:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (JUL)

3.4%

-

0.4%

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JUL)

7.2%

-

5.9%

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUL F)

1.7%

-

1.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account SA (JUN)

-

18.0B

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account NSA (JUN)

-

3.4B

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (JUN)

-

0.3%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (JUN)

-

0.3%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0891

1.0968

1.0996

1.1045

1.1073

1.1122

1.1199

GBPUSD

1.5339

1.5493

1.5577

1.5647

1.5731

1.5801

1.5955

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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