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US Dollar May Rise as Payrolls Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar May Rise as Payrolls Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat Jobs Data Boosts Fed Tightening Outlook
  • Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Policy Statement Weighs on Rate Cut Bets
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively lackluster economic data docket in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to July’s US Employment report. An increase of 225,000 in nonfarm payrolls is expected. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.3 percent, matching a seven-year low recorded in June.

US economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to expectations since mid-May. That suggests analysts’ models are underestimating the vigor of recovery from the first-quarter downswing, opening the door for an upside surprise.

Such a result is likely to cement bets on a rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, boosting the US Dollar at the expense of most of its top counterparts. The onset of risk aversion triggered by the prospect of US tightening even as the Eurozone and China remain sluggish, threatening global growth at large, may see outsized losses for commodity-bloc currencies but boost the Japanese Yen.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a parallel move higher in front-end bond yields, pointing to ebbing RBA rate hike bets as the drive behind the move.

The improvement in investors’ outlook followed the release of the central bank’s monthly Statement on Monetary Policy. Officials upgraded their inflation outlook and argued that February and May rate cuts still working through into the broad economy, undermining the case for further easing.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (JUL)

47.1

-

46.4

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets (JUL)

$1242.3B

-

$1242.9B

1:30

AUD

RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

-

-

-

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (JUN)

4.4%

5.0%

-7.3%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (JUN)

-0.7%

-

-3.5%

1:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (JUN)

5.5%

-

-7.1%

3:18

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80T

¥80T

¥80T

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JUL)

3.1% (A)

3.1%

Medium

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (JUL)

3.3% (A)

3.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

-1.4% (A)

0.2%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

0.6% (A)

2.4%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (JUN)

24.0B (A)

19.5B

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Current Account Balance (JUN)

24.4B (A)

11.1B

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Exports SA (MoM) (JUN)

-1.0% (A)

1.6%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Imports SA (MoM) (JUN)

-0.5% (A)

0.7%

Medium

6:45

EUR

France Budget Balance YTD (JUN)

-

-63.9B

Low

6:45

EUR

France Trade Balance (JUN)

-3634M

-4020M

Low

6:45

EUR

France Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN)

-0.1% (A)

0.4%

Low

6:45

EUR

France Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)

0.6% (A)

2.5%

Low

6:45

EUR

France Mfg Production (MoM) (JUN)

-0.7% (A)

0.7%

Low

6:45

EUR

France Mfg Production (YoY) (JUN)

0.1% (A)

3.0%

Low

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (JUL)

531.8B (A)

516.0B

Low

8:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (GBP/Mn) (JUN)

-£9300

-£8000

Medium

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non-EU (GBP/Mn) (JUN)

-£2400

-£1570

Medium

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance (GBP/Mn) (JUN)

-£1700

-£393

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0774

1.0844

1.0885

1.0914

1.0955

1.0984

1.1054

GBPUSD

1.5201

1.5370

1.5441

1.5539

1.5610

1.5708

1.5877

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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