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US Dollar May Rise on Rate Hike Bets, Euro to Look Past CPI Data

US Dollar May Rise on Rate Hike Bets, Euro to Look Past CPI Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise as Employment Cost Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
  • July’s Flash Eurozone CPI Unlikely to Inspire Lasting Euro Follow-Through
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected print at 0.2 percent, unchanged from the prior month.

The release seemsunlikely to inspire meaningful follow-through from the Euro considering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Indeed, the central bank appears effectively on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.

US economic data will enter the spotlight in the day. The second-quarter Employment Cost Index report is in focus, where expectations point to a slight deceleration for a print at 0.6 percent compared with 0.7 percent in the three months through March.

US news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result – particularly if it is bolstered by an upside revision on July’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge – stands to reinforce bets on an on-coming Fed interest rate hike following this week’s hawkish shift in FOMC rhetoric, boosting the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (JUL)

4

5

7

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (JUN)

3.4%

3.3%

3.3%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN)

1.19

1.2

1.19

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JUN)

-2.0%

1.9%

4.8%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (JUN)

0.4%

0.3%

0.5%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)

0.6%

0.4%

0.4%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUL)

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN)

2.74%

-

2.91%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL)

19

-

23.6

01:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (JUL)

-15.3

-

-2.3

01:15

AUD

CBA/HIA House Affordability (2Q)

79.7

-

82

01:30

AUD

PPI (QoQ) (2Q)

0.3%

-

0.5%

01:30

AUD

PPI (YoY) (2Q)

1.1%

-

0.7%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN)

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN)

5.9%

6.0%

6.2%

03:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN)

9.5%

-

8.1%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN)

16.3%

3.0%

5.8%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JUN)

1.033M

0.913M

0.912M

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN)

15.4%

-

-7.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)

-2.3% (A)

0.4%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN)

5.1% (A)

-1.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL)

-

55

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JUN)

11.0%

11.1%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JUL)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JUL A)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0746

1.0842

1.0887

1.0938

1.0983

1.1034

1.1130

GBPUSD

1.5443

1.5523

1.5562

1.5603

1.5642

1.5683

1.5763

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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