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Pound May Rise as 2Q UK GDP Data Boosts BOE Rate Hike Bets

Pound May Rise as 2Q UK GDP Data Boosts BOE Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as 2Q UK GDP Data Boosts BOE Rate Hike Outlook
  • US Dollar Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in Consumer Confidence Report
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Second-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. An increase of 0.7 percent is expected, which would mark a pickup from the 0.4 percent gain recorded in the first three months of the year. An upbeat result would reinforce recent comments from BOE officials expressing concerns about wage inflation and fuel speculation about oncoming tightening. Needless to say, such a scenario is likely to bode well for the British Pound.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to July’s US Consumer Confidence gauge. A slight pullback is expected after the index hit a three-month high in June. US economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May however, opening the door for an upside surprise that may boost the US Dollar. Follow-through may be limited however as investors withhold directional conviction until after the passage of Wednesday’s FOMC policy announcement.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollar rose amid firming risk appetite as some Chinese stocks recovered after yesterday’s dramatic selloff. The Japanese Yen underperformed as firming sentiment put pressure on the safety-linked currency. While mainland shares remained under pressure, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advance over 1 percent having lost more than 3 percent in the preceding session.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

Weekly Consumer Confidence Index (JUL 26)

112.5

-

111.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

08:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (2Q A)

0.7%

0.4%

High

08:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (2Q A)

2.6%

2.9%

High

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (May)

0.3%

0.2%

Low

08:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (May)

0.5%

0.5%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0742

1.0902

1.0995

1.1062

1.1155

1.1222

1.1382

GBPUSD

1.5340

1.5444

1.5502

1.5548

1.5606

1.5652

1.5756

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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