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Pound May Prove More Responsive Than Euro to Eurozone PMI Data

Pound May Prove More Responsive Than Euro to Eurozone PMI Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Eurozone PMIs May Prove More Market-Moving for the Pound vs. the Euro
  • NZ Dollar Slumps as RBNZ’s McDermott Talks Down Rate Hike Possibilities
  • Franc Corrects Higher After Yesterday’s Aggressive SNB-Inspired Decline

The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth continued to accelerate, hitting a new four-year high.

The report may not generate a lasting response from the Euro with ECB policy seemingly on auto-pilot for now. A supportive outcome may boost the British Pound however amid hopes that firming growth on the Continent will have positive spillover via a pickup in demand for UK exports. That in turn may drive speculation of a relatively sooner BOE interest rate hike. We remain short EURGBP.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 1 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move followed comments from RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott, who said the central isn’t considering an interest rate hike at present and would instead consider easing if demand and/or prices weakened.

The Swiss Franc proved strongest on the session as prices retraced some of yesterday’s outsized losses. That drop was sustained after the SNB reduced the number of institutions exempt from negative sight deposit rates, in effect expanding the scope of its easing effort.


Asia Session

22:45NZDNet Migration SA (MAR)5000-4810
0:00NZDRBNZ Asst Gov McDermott Speaks in Hamilton ---
1:00NZDANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)128.8-124.6
1:00NZDANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)3.4%-0.5%
1:30AUDNAB Business Confidence (1Q)0-2
1:35JPYMarkit/JMMA Mfg PMI (APR P)49.750.750.3
1:45CNYHSBC Mfg PMI (APR P)49.249.649.6
3:00NZDCredit Card Spending (MoM) (MAR)0.6%--0.1%
3:00NZDCredit Card Spending (YoY) (MAR)5.2%-5.8%

European Session

6:00CHFTrade Balance (MAR)2.12B2.47BMedium
6:00CHFExports Real (MoM) (MAR)--2.8%Medium
6:00CHFImports Real (MoM) (MAR)-3.1%Medium
6:00EURGermany GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY)-10Low
7:00EURMarkit France Mfg PMI (APR P)49.248.8Medium
7:00EURMarkit France Services PMI (APR P)52.452.4Medium
7:00EURMarkit France Composite PMI (APR P)51.851.5Medium
7:30EURMarkit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (APR P)53.052.8High
7:30EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (APR P)55.555.4High
7:30EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (APR P)55.655.4High
8:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (APR P)52.652.2High
8:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (APR P)54.554.2High
8:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (APR P)54.454.0High
8:30GBPPublic Finances (PSNCR) (MAR)-0.0BLow
8:30GBPCentral Government NCR (MAR)-3.5BLow
8:30GBPPublic Sector Net Borrowing (MAR)6.5B6.2BLow
8:30GBPPSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR)7.0B6.9BLow
8:30GBPRetail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (MAR)0.5%0.7%Medium
8:30GBPRetail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (MAR)5.5%5.1%Medium
8:30GBPRetail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (MAR)0.4%0.7%Medium
8:30GBPRetail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (MAR)5.4%5.7%Medium
9:00EUREurozone 4Q Government Debt --Low
9:00EUREurozone 4Q Government Deficit --Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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