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Pound May Prove More Responsive Than Euro to Eurozone PMI Data

Pound May Prove More Responsive Than Euro to Eurozone PMI Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Eurozone PMIs May Prove More Market-Moving for the Pound vs. the Euro
  • NZ Dollar Slumps as RBNZ’s McDermott Talks Down Rate Hike Possibilities
  • Franc Corrects Higher After Yesterday’s Aggressive SNB-Inspired Decline

The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth continued to accelerate, hitting a new four-year high.

The report may not generate a lasting response from the Euro with ECB policy seemingly on auto-pilot for now. A supportive outcome may boost the British Pound however amid hopes that firming growth on the Continent will have positive spillover via a pickup in demand for UK exports. That in turn may drive speculation of a relatively sooner BOE interest rate hike. We remain short EURGBP.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 1 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move followed comments from RBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott, who said the central isn’t considering an interest rate hike at present and would instead consider easing if demand and/or prices weakened.

The Swiss Franc proved strongest on the session as prices retraced some of yesterday’s outsized losses. That drop was sustained after the SNB reduced the number of institutions exempt from negative sight deposit rates, in effect expanding the scope of its easing effort.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Net Migration SA (MAR)

5000

-

4810

0:00

NZD

RBNZ Asst Gov McDermott Speaks in Hamilton

-

-

-

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

128.8

-

124.6

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)

3.4%

-

0.5%

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (1Q)

0

-

2

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Mfg PMI (APR P)

49.7

50.7

50.3

1:45

CNY

HSBC Mfg PMI (APR P)

49.2

49.6

49.6

3:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (MAR)

0.6%

-

-0.1%

3:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (MAR)

5.2%

-

5.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance (MAR)

2.12B

2.47B

Medium

6:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (MAR)

-

-2.8%

Medium

6:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (MAR)

-

3.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY)

-

10

Low

7:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (APR P)

49.2

48.8

Medium

7:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (APR P)

52.4

52.4

Medium

7:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (APR P)

51.8

51.5

Medium

7:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (APR P)

53.0

52.8

High

7:30

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (APR P)

55.5

55.4

High

7:30

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (APR P)

55.6

55.4

High

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (APR P)

52.6

52.2

High

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (APR P)

54.5

54.2

High

8:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (APR P)

54.4

54.0

High

8:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (MAR)

-

0.0B

Low

8:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (MAR)

-

3.5B

Low

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (MAR)

6.5B

6.2B

Low

8:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (MAR)

7.0B

6.9B

Low

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (MAR)

0.5%

0.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (MAR)

5.5%

5.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (MAR)

0.4%

0.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (MAR)

5.4%

5.7%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone 4Q Government Debt

-

-

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone 4Q Government Deficit

-

-

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0561

1.0653

1.0689

1.0745

1.0781

1.0837

1.0929

GBPUSD

1.4676

1.4843

1.4940

1.5010

1.5107

1.5177

1.5344

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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