Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.
Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Euro, Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Falls on Greece Funding Deal

Euro, Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Falls on Greece Funding Deal

Talking Points:

  • Euro to Look Past CPI Data, Focus on Greece Debt Negotiations
  • Greek Deal May Boost Aussie and NZ Dollar, Boost Japanese Yen
  • Access Real-Time FX Markets Analysis with DailyFX on Demand

The preliminary set of March Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, rising for a second consecutive month. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook.

Rather, the spotlight is likely to remain on Greece. Athens submitted a list of proposed reforms on Friday. The markets now await the verdict on whether the “institutions” representing Greece’s creditors – the EU, the ECB and the IMF – will approve it and unlock the next round of bailout funding. Investors fear that if external funding is not secured, a cash crunch and subsequent default may lead to the country’s exit from the Eurozone.

On balance, both sides of the negotiation are interested in a deal. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and company surely realize that a disorderly redenomination will probably compound the country’s economic woes and cost them their jobs. Meanwhile, EU and IMF officials no doubt prefer to avoid a “Grexit” scenario for fear of the precedent it may set. On balance, this means that some kind of accommodation is more likely than not.

An accord that prevents a default and keeps Greece in the currency bloc is likely to prove supportive for the single currency. Follow-through may be somewhat limited however as on-going ECB QE casts a dark cloud over the near-term outlook. It may likewise boost overall risk appetite, sending the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars upward while punishing the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Needless to say, failing to reach a deal stands to produce the opposite response.


Asia Session

21:45NZDBuilding Permits (MoM) (FEB)-6.3%--4.6%
22:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf112.3-111.4
23:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence (MAR)421
23:50JPYLoans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)3.22%-2.91%
0:00AUDHIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)1.1%-1.8%
0:00NZDANZ Activity Outlook (MAR)42.2-40.9
0:00NZDANZ Business Confidence (MAR)35.8-34.4
0:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (MoM) (FEB)0.5%0.5%0.6%
0:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (YoY) (FEB)6.2%6.3%6.1%
2:00NZDMoney Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)6.6%-6.2%
4:00JPYVehicle Production (YoY) (FEB)-5.3% --9.7%
5:00JPYHousing Starts (YoY) (FEB)-6.8%-13.0%
5:00JPYAnnualized Housing Starts (FEB)0.877M0.864M
5:00JPYConstruction Orders (YoY) (FEB)-27.5%

European Session

6:00EURGerman Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)-0.7%2.3%Medium
6:00EURGerman Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)3.4%5.3%Medium
7:55EURGerman Unemployment Change (MAR)-12K-20KMedium
7:55EURGerman Unemployment Rate (MAR)6.5%6.5%Medium
8:30GBPCurrent Account Balance (4Q)-22.0B-27.0BLow
8:30GBPGDP (QoQ) (4Q F)0.5%0.50%Medium
8:30GBPGDP (YoY) (4Q F)2.7%2.7%Medium
8:30GBPTotal Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F)--1.4%Low
8:30GBPTotal Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F)-2.1%Low
8:30GBPIndex of Services (MoM) (JAN)0.3%0.6%Low
8:30GBPIndex of Services (3M/3M) (JAN)0.8%0.8%Low
8:30GBPLloyds Business Barometer (MAR)-45Low
9:00EUREurozone Unemployment Rate (FEB)11.2%11.2%Medium
9:00EUREurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAR)-0.1%-0.3%High
9:00EUREurozone CPI Core (YoY) (MAR A)0.7%0.7%High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.