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Euro, Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Falls on Greece Funding Deal

Euro, Aussie Dollar May Rise as Yen Falls on Greece Funding Deal

2015-03-31 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

The preliminary set of March Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 percent, rising for a second consecutive month. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook.

Rather, the spotlight is likely to remain on Greece. Athens submitted a list of proposed reforms on Friday. The markets now await the verdict on whether the “institutions” representing Greece’s creditors – the EU, the ECB and the IMF – will approve it and unlock the next round of bailout funding. Investors fear that if external funding is not secured, a cash crunch and subsequent default may lead to the country’s exit from the Eurozone.

On balance, both sides of the negotiation are interested in a deal. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and company surely realize that a disorderly redenomination will probably compound the country’s economic woes and cost them their jobs. Meanwhile, EU and IMF officials no doubt prefer to avoid a “Grexit” scenario for fear of the precedent it may set. On balance, this means that some kind of accommodation is more likely than not.

An accord that prevents a default and keeps Greece in the currency bloc is likely to prove supportive for the single currency. Follow-through may be somewhat limited however as on-going ECB QE casts a dark cloud over the near-term outlook. It may likewise boost overall risk appetite, sending the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars upward while punishing the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Needless to say, failing to reach a deal stands to produce the opposite response.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (FEB)

-6.3%

-

-4.6%

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

112.3

-

111.4

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (MAR)

4

2

1

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (FEB)

3.22%

-

2.91%

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

1.1%

-

1.8%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (MAR)

42.2

-

40.9

0:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (MAR)

35.8

-

34.4

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

0.5%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (FEB)

6.2%

6.3%

6.1%

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)

6.6%

-

6.2%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (FEB)

-5.3%

-

-9.7%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (FEB)

-6.8%

-13.0%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (FEB)

0.877M

0.864M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (FEB)

-

27.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

-0.7%

2.3%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

3.4%

5.3%

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (MAR)

-12K

-20K

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate (MAR)

6.5%

6.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Current Account Balance (4Q)

-22.0B

-27.0B

Low

8:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.5%

0.50%

Medium

8:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (4Q F)

2.7%

2.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (QoQ) (4Q F)

-

-1.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q F)

-

2.1%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (JAN)

0.3%

0.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (JAN)

0.8%

0.8%

Low

8:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (MAR)

-

45

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (FEB)

11.2%

11.2%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAR)

-0.1%

-0.3%

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (MAR A)

0.7%

0.7%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0659

1.0754

1.0794

1.0849

1.0889

1.0944

1.1039

GBPUSD

1.4525

1.4673

1.4742

1.4821

1.4890

1.4969

1.5117

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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