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US Dollar May Fall as Fed-Speak Underpins Bets on Rate Hike Delay

US Dollar May Fall as Fed-Speak Underpins Bets on Rate Hike Delay

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in Upbeat German IFO Survey Data
  • US Dollar May Decline as Fed Commentary Supports Dovish Outlook Shift
  • New Zealand Dollar Underperforms on Soft Trade Balance Data Overnight

Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to rise for the fifth consecutive month in March, registering at the highest level since July. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook. Indeed, sentiment may be improving because the central bank has expanded stimulus efforts, which hardly seems like a supportive narrative for the single currency.

Later in the day, “Fed-speak” returns to the spotlight as Charles Evans – the President of the central bank’s Chicago branch – takes to the wires. Traders pushed out the likely timeline for the first post-QE rate interest hike after last week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed Funds futures now pointing to an increase in September (versus the June/July consensus prevailing ahead of the Fed announcement). Rhetoric supporting thisshift from the typically dovish Mr. Evans may weigh on the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.3 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move followed a disappointing Trade Balance data set that put the year-to-date deficit a –NZ$2.18 billion in February, the highest since August 2009. The British Pound corrected broadly higher after sinking against all of the majors yesterday on the back of soft CPI figures, as expected. The Japanese Yen likewise advanced on regional haven flows as the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index declined.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (FEB)

50M

350M

33M

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (FEB)

-2181M

-1850M

-1434M

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (FEB)

3.92B

4.10B

3.68B

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (FEB)

3.87B

3.70B

3.64B

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (FEB)

3.3%

3.3%

3.5%

0:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

-

0.4%

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (MAR)

114.7

-

112.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (FEB)

-

1.24

Low

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Business Climate (MAR)

107.3

106.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Current Assessment (MAR)

112.0

111.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

German IFO - Expectations (MAR)

103.0

102.5

Medium

9:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (FEB)

36650

36394

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0672

1.0810

1.0867

1.0948

1.1005

1.1086

1.1224

GBPUSD

1.4611

1.4752

1.4801

1.4893

1.4942

1.5034

1.5175

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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