News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.93% Silver: -1.67% Oil - US Crude: -2.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zljwnQwRbk
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/GgrFV6rChg
  • Prior to the oil blockade in January, Libya had been producing circa 1.1mbpd https://t.co/ZS6LPcKbyF
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.42% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.39% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.50% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.58% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0EqnRHMZJ3
  • Libya has restarted oil production by 90kbpd and will resume an extra 220kbpd on September 24th, according to sources #OOTT
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -1.50% Wall Street: -1.78% France 40: -3.30% Germany 30: -3.41% FTSE 100: -3.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2G6XT0J6v5
  • Tune in to @nickcawley1 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to prepare for key UK events and markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/xewSeUoDaT https://t.co/I8N4F5SmRK
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Germany 30 for the first time since Sep 08, 2020 when Germany 30 traded near 12,883.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PrXKfwUQbT
  • UK's Hancock says final decisions have not been taken in response to surge in COVID cases $GBP
  • #SP500 futures tumbling through Bear Flag support at the 3300 mark. Implied measured move suggests a push to 3000 could be on the cards if price breaks below the June high (3231.25) $ES $SPX https://t.co/o26aOMmin8 https://t.co/pS7A9CVmt6
US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Dents Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Dents Rate Hike Bets

2015-03-24 06:10:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar, British Pound May Fall as Soft CPI Figures Dent Rate Hike Bets
  • Limited ECB Policy Impact to Contain Euro Follow-Through on PMI Data
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

February’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slip to 1.3 percent. UK price-growth data has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, suggesting economists’ models are over-estimating inflation and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may further depress Bank of England interest rate hike bets, weighing on the British Pound.

The preliminary set of March Eurozone PMI figures is likewise on tap. The region-wide composite index is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth accelerated for a fourth consecutive month. The outcome seems unlikely to offer much by way of lasting Euro volatility however considering the results’ limited impact on the near-term ECB policy outlook.

Later in the day, the spotlight moves to the US CPI report. The core measure is seen rising to 1.7 percent year-on-year, marking a three-month high. Similarly to the UK however, US inflation data has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations since mid-2014 however. If that trends continues, a soft result may be in the cards. Such an outcome may pour cold water on Fed tightening speculation, pushing the US Dollar downward.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appears to have reflected haven flows amid ebbing risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index traded, with at least some of the negative mood seemingly stemming from a disappointing HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. The report showed factory-sector activity unexpectedly contracted at the fastest pace in 11 months in March.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

111.4

-

110.8

23:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (MoM) (JAN)

0.4%

-

0.4%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Mfg PMI (MAR P)

50.4

52.0

51.6

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Mfg PMI (MAR P)

49.2

50.5

50.7

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Econ Index (FEB)

317.6

-

312.9

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (MAR)

49.8

48.0

46.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (MAR P)

51.9

52.2

Low

8:00

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (MAR P)

48.5

47.6

Low

8:00

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (MAR P)

52.5

53.4

Low

8:30

EUR

Markit/BME German Composite PMI (MAR P)

54.1

53.8

Medium

8:30

EUR

Markit German Services PMI (MAR P)

55.0

54.7

Medium

8:30

EUR

Markit German Mfg PMI (MAR P)

51.5

51.0

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (MAR P)

53.6

53.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (MAR P)

53.9

53.7

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (MAR P)

51.5

51.0

Medium

9:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (FEB)

1.3%

1.4%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (FEB)

0.1%

0.3%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-0.9%

High

9:30

GBP

RPI (FEB)

256.6

255.4

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (FEB)

0.9%

1.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (FEB)

1.0%

1.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

1.6%

-3.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

-12.3%

-14.2%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input n.s.a (YoY) (FEB)

-2.0%

-1.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

0.0%

-0.5%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%

0.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core (YoY) (FEB)

0.4%

0.5%

Medium

9:30

GBP

ONS House Prices (YoY) (JAN)

8.9%

9.8%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0489

1.0692

1.0819

1.0895

1.1022

1.1098

1.1301

GBPUSD

1.4625

1.4776

1.4864

1.4927

1.5015

1.5078

1.5229

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES