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US Dollar Bounce May Yield to Renewed Selling on PPI, UofM Data

US Dollar Bounce May Yield to Renewed Selling on PPI, UofM Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Pullback May Resume on Soft PPI, Consumer Confidence Data
  • Australian Dollar Underperforms in Asia, Tracking ASX/S&P 200 Decline
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar corrected higher in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appears corrective after the greenback produced its largest daily drawdown in a month in the prior session. The Australian Dollar underperformed, sliding as much as 0.4 percent against the majors. The move tracked a drop in Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind the decline in the sentiment-sensitive currency.

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US data docket for direction cues. February’s PPI report is expected to put core year-on-year wholesale inflation at 1.6 percent, matching the four-month low recorded in January. Separately, the University of Michigan consumer confidence gauge is expected to edge narrowly higher in March.

Last week’s payrolls data notwithstanding however, US economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to expectations since late December. This warns that analysts may be overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may cool Fed rate hike speculation, weighing on the greenback.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
21:30NZDBusinessNZ Perf of Mfg (FEB)55.9-50.7
2:00NZDNon-Resident Bond Holdings (FEB) 65.7%-65.8%
4:30JPYIndustrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)-2.8%--2.6%
4:30JPYIndustrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)3.7%-4.0%
4:30JPYCapacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN)3.6%-2.0%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
7:00EURGerman Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)--0.4%Low
7:00EURGerman Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)--2.6%Low
9:30GBPConstruction Output (YoY) (JAN)2.1%5.5%Low
9:30GBPConstruction Output (MoM) (JAN)1.3%0.4%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.02271.04161.05251.06051.07141.07941.0983
GBPUSD1.45661.47431.48131.49201.49901.50971.5274

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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