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US Dollar Bounce May Yield to Renewed Selling on PPI, UofM Data

US Dollar Bounce May Yield to Renewed Selling on PPI, UofM Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Pullback May Resume on Soft PPI, Consumer Confidence Data
  • Australian Dollar Underperforms in Asia, Tracking ASX/S&P 200 Decline
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar corrected higher in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appears corrective after the greenback produced its largest daily drawdown in a month in the prior session. The Australian Dollar underperformed, sliding as much as 0.4 percent against the majors. The move tracked a drop in Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind the decline in the sentiment-sensitive currency.

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US data docket for direction cues. February’s PPI report is expected to put core year-on-year wholesale inflation at 1.6 percent, matching the four-month low recorded in January. Separately, the University of Michigan consumer confidence gauge is expected to edge narrowly higher in March.

Last week’s payrolls data notwithstanding however, US economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to expectations since late December. This warns that analysts may be overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may cool Fed rate hike speculation, weighing on the greenback.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Perf of Mfg (FEB)

55.9

-

50.7

2:00

NZD

Non-Resident Bond Holdings (FEB)

65.7%

-

65.8%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F)

-2.8%

-

-2.6%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F)

3.7%

-

4.0%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN)

3.6%

-

2.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

-

-0.4%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

-

-2.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output (YoY) (JAN)

2.1%

5.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output (MoM) (JAN)

1.3%

0.4%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0227

1.0416

1.0525

1.0605

1.0714

1.0794

1.0983

GBPUSD

1.4566

1.4743

1.4813

1.4920

1.4990

1.5097

1.5274

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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