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US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures

US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Fall as Japanese Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures
  • Aussie Dollar Edges Upward Alongside Australian Bond Yields Overnight
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

All eyes are on February’s US Employment figures through the end of the trading week. Expectations point to a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, marking slight slowdown compared with the 257,000 increase recorded in January. US economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since late December, hinting analysts are overestimating the vigor of the economy. That opens the door for a downside surprise.

A disappointing result may pour cold water on Federal Reserve interest rate hike speculation, weighing on the US Dollar. It may likewise fuel risk aversion amid fears the US recovery will be insufficient to counterbalance headwinds to global growth from downturns in Europe and China. Souring sentiment is likely to be accompanied by carry trade liquidation, offering a lift to the Japanese Yen.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked an advanced in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, pointing to moderating rate cut bets as a catalyst. Still, markets are pricing in 50 basis points of easing over the coming 12 months and a 48 percent probability of a cut next month.


Asia Session

22:30AUDAiG Perf of Construction (FEB)43.9-45.9
23:50JPYOfficial Reserve Assets ($ ) (FEB)1251.1B-1261.1B
5:00JPYLeading Index (JAN P)105.1105.8105.3
5:00JPYCoincident Index (JAN P)113.0112.2110.6
5:30AUDForeign Reserves (A$) (FEB)--62.5B

European Session

6:25CHFSNB FY Earnings --Low
7:00EURIndustrial Production (MoM) (JAN)0.5%0.1%Low
7:00EURIndustrial Production (YoY) (JAN)-0.2%-0.7%Low
8:00CHFForeign Currency Reserves (FEB)-498.4BLow
8:15CHFCPI (MoM) (FEB)0.0%-0.4%Medium
8:15CHFCPI (YoY) (FEB)-0.6%-0.5%Medium
8:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (FEB)0.0%-0.4%Low
8:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB)0.0%-0.1%Low
9:30GBPBOE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Months (FEB)-2.5%Low
10:00EURGDP (QoQ) (4Q P)0.3%0.3%Medium
10:00EURGDP (YoY) (4Q P)0.9%0.9%Medium
10:00EURGross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (4Q)0.3%-0.3%Low
10:00EURGovernment Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q)0.1%0.3%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.