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US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures

US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Fall as Japanese Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures
  • Aussie Dollar Edges Upward Alongside Australian Bond Yields Overnight
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

All eyes are on February’s US Employment figures through the end of the trading week. Expectations point to a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, marking slight slowdown compared with the 257,000 increase recorded in January. US economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since late December, hinting analysts are overestimating the vigor of the economy. That opens the door for a downside surprise.

A disappointing result may pour cold water on Federal Reserve interest rate hike speculation, weighing on the US Dollar. It may likewise fuel risk aversion amid fears the US recovery will be insufficient to counterbalance headwinds to global growth from downturns in Europe and China. Souring sentiment is likely to be accompanied by carry trade liquidation, offering a lift to the Japanese Yen.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked an advanced in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, pointing to moderating rate cut bets as a catalyst. Still, markets are pricing in 50 basis points of easing over the coming 12 months and a 48 percent probability of a cut next month.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction (FEB)

43.9

-

45.9

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($ ) (FEB)

1251.1B

-

1261.1B

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (JAN P)

105.1

105.8

105.3

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (JAN P)

113.0

112.2

110.6

5:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (FEB)

-

-

62.5B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:25

CHF

SNB FY Earnings

-

-

Low

7:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)

0.5%

0.1%

Low

7:00

EUR

Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

-0.2%

-0.7%

Low

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB)

-

498.4B

Low

8:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (FEB)

0.0%

-0.4%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (FEB)

-0.6%

-0.5%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (FEB)

0.0%

-0.4%

Low

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB)

0.0%

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

BOE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Months (FEB)

-

2.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) (4Q P)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

10:00

EUR

GDP (YoY) (4Q P)

0.9%

0.9%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (4Q)

0.3%

-0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q)

0.1%

0.3%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0792

1.0918

1.0974

1.1044

1.1100

1.1170

1.1296

GBPUSD

1.5132

1.5187

1.5213

1.5242

1.5268

1.5297

1.5352

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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