US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures
- US Dollar May Fall as Japanese Yen Gains on Soft US Employment Figures
- Aussie Dollar Edges Upward Alongside Australian Bond Yields Overnight
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
All eyes are on February’s US Employment figures through the end of the trading week. Expectations point to a 235,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, marking slight slowdown compared with the 257,000 increase recorded in January. US economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since late December, hinting analysts are overestimating the vigor of the economy. That opens the door for a downside surprise.
A disappointing result may pour cold water on Federal Reserve interest rate hike speculation, weighing on the US Dollar. It may likewise fuel risk aversion amid fears the US recovery will be insufficient to counterbalance headwinds to global growth from downturns in Europe and China. Souring sentiment is likely to be accompanied by carry trade liquidation, offering a lift to the Japanese Yen.
The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked an advanced in Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, pointing to moderating rate cut bets as a catalyst. Still, markets are pricing in 50 basis points of easing over the coming 12 months and a 48 percent probability of a cut next month.
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|22:30||AUD||AiG Perf of Construction (FEB)||43.9||-||45.9|
|23:50||JPY||Official Reserve Assets ($ ) (FEB)||1251.1B||-||1261.1B|
|5:00||JPY||Leading Index (JAN P)||105.1||105.8||105.3|
|5:00||JPY||Coincident Index (JAN P)||113.0||112.2||110.6|
|5:30||AUD||Foreign Reserves (A$) (FEB)||-||-||62.5B|
|6:25||CHF||SNB FY Earnings||-||-||Low|
|7:00||EUR||Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)||0.5%||0.1%||Low|
|7:00||EUR||Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)||-0.2%||-0.7%||Low|
|8:00||CHF||Foreign Currency Reserves (FEB)||-||498.4B||Low|
|8:15||CHF||CPI (MoM) (FEB)||0.0%||-0.4%||Medium|
|8:15||CHF||CPI (YoY) (FEB)||-0.6%||-0.5%||Medium|
|8:15||CHF||CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (FEB)||0.0%||-0.4%||Low|
|8:15||CHF||CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (FEB)||0.0%||-0.1%||Low|
|9:30||GBP||BOE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Months (FEB)||-||2.5%||Low|
|10:00||EUR||GDP (QoQ) (4Q P)||0.3%||0.3%||Medium|
|10:00||EUR||GDP (YoY) (4Q P)||0.9%||0.9%||Medium|
|10:00||EUR||Gross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (4Q)||0.3%||-0.3%||Low|
|10:00||EUR||Government Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q)||0.1%||0.3%||Low|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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