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Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Fuel in German CPI Data as ECB QE Launch Looms
  • Larger-Than-Expected US GDP Markdown May Send US Dollar Downward
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Germany’s flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.3 percent drawdown in February following a 0.4 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE next month.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the second revision of four-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth reading is expected to be revised down to 2 percent from the initially-reported estimate of 2.6 percent. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.

The greenback faced broad-based selling pressure overnight, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective in the context of yesterday’s aggressive rally that produced the largest daily advance in a month. That move followed January’s CPI data that showed a larger than expected monthly rise in core inflation while a separate report showed real Average Hourly Earnings jumped 1.2 percent last month, marking the largest increase since November 2008.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

NZD

Building Permits (MoM)

-3.8%

-

-2.3%

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (JAN)

3.6%

3.4%

3.4%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)

1.14

1.15

1.14

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)

-5.1%

-4.1%

-3.4%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (JAN)

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)

2.2%

2.3%

2.5%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (FEB)

2.3%

2.2%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)

4.0%

2.7%

0.8%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)

-2.6%

-3.1%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (JAN)

-2.0%

-1.2%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)

-1.3%

-0.4%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (JAN)

0.0%

-0.1%

0.1%

00:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)

40.9

-

37.3

00:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (FEB)

34.4

-

30.4

00:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB)

1

2

1

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)

0.6%

0.5%

0.5%

00:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)

6.2%

6.0%

5.9%

2:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)

6.2%

-

6.3%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)

-9.7%

-

-2.5%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (JAN)

-13.0%

-11.6%

-14.7%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (JAN)

0.864M

0.880M

0.883M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (JAN)

27.5%

-

3.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

-0.8% (A)

-1.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

-4.4% (A)

-3.7%

Low

8:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (FEB)

89

97

Low

9:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (FEB)

-

52

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (FEB P)

0.6%

-1.1%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (FEB P)

-0.3%

-0.4%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI- EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)

0.6%

-1.3%

Medium

13:00

EUR

German CPI- EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB P)

-0.5%

0.5%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0862

1.1058

1.1128

1.1254

1.1324

1.1450

1.1646

GBPUSD

1.5137

1.5294

1.5350

1.5451

1.5507

1.5608

1.5765

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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