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Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Unlikely to Find Fuel in German CPI Data as ECB QE Launch Looms
  • Larger-Than-Expected US GDP Markdown May Send US Dollar Downward
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Germany’s flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.3 percent drawdown in February following a 0.4 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE next month.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the second revision of four-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth reading is expected to be revised down to 2 percent from the initially-reported estimate of 2.6 percent. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.

The greenback faced broad-based selling pressure overnight, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective in the context of yesterday’s aggressive rally that produced the largest daily advance in a month. That move followed January’s CPI data that showed a larger than expected monthly rise in core inflation while a separate report showed real Average Hourly Earnings jumped 1.2 percent last month, marking the largest increase since November 2008.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:30NZDBuilding Permits (MoM)-3.8%--2.3%
23:30JPYJobless Rate (JAN)3.6%3.4%3.4%
23:30JPYJob-To-Applicant Ratio (JAN)1.141.151.14
23:30JPYOverall Household Spending (YoY) (JAN)-5.1%-4.1%-3.4%
23:30JPYNatl CPI (YoY) (JAN)2.4%2.4%2.4%
23:30JPYNatl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)2.2%2.3%2.5%
23:30JPYNatl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)2.1%2.1%2.1%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI (YoY) (FEB)2.3%2.2%2.3%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (FEB)2.2%2.2%2.2%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (FEB)1.7%1.7%1.7%
23:50JPYIndustrial Production (MoM) (JAN P)4.0%2.7%0.8%
23:50JPYIndustrial Production (YoY) (JAN P)-2.6%-3.1%0.1%
23:50JPYRetail Trade (YoY) (JAN)-2.0%-1.2%0.1%
23:50JPYRetail Sales (MoM) (JAN)-1.3%-0.4%-0.4%
23:50JPYLarge Retailers' Sales (JAN)0.0%-0.1%0.1%
00:00NZDANZ Activity Outlook (FEB)40.9-37.3
00:00NZDANZ Business Confidence (FEB)34.4-30.4
00:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence (FEB)121
00:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (MoM) (JAN)0.6%0.5%0.5%
00:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (YoY) (JAN)6.2%6.0%5.9%
2:00NZDMoney Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)6.2%-6.3%
4:00JPYVehicle Production (YoY) (JAN)-9.7%--2.5%
5:00JPYHousing Starts (YoY) (JAN)-13.0%-11.6%-14.7%
5:00JPYAnnualized Housing Starts (JAN)0.864M0.880M0.883M
5:00JPYConstruction Orders (YoY) (JAN)27.5%-3.4%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
7:00EURGerman Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)-0.8% (A)-1.7%Low
7:00EURGerman Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)-4.4% (A)-3.7%Low
8:00CHFKOF Leading Indicator (FEB)8997Low
9:30GBPLloyds Business Barometer (FEB)-52Low
13:00EURGerman CPI (MoM) (FEB P)0.6%-1.1%High
13:00EURGerman CPI (YoY) (FEB P)-0.3%-0.4%High
13:00EURGerman CPI- EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB P)0.6%-1.3%Medium
13:00EURGerman CPI- EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB P)-0.5%0.5%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.08621.10581.11281.12541.13241.14501.1646
GBPUSD1.51371.52941.53501.54511.55071.56081.5765

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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